One Liam Lawson result would be ‘very bad news’ for Sergio Perez’s chances of staying at Red Bull

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Liam Lawson will begin his audition for a 2025 Red Bull seat at the United States Grand Prix this weekend. All the while, Sergio Perez could be entering the final six races of his career.

Red Bull have placed Lawson at RB for the remainder of the season, at the expense of Daniel Ricciardo, to see whether he’d be a better teammate for Max Verstappen next year. Ricciardo didn’t do enough to unseat Perez despite the Mexican’s dismal 2024 form.

Perez is in breach of contract at Red Bull after falling more than 100 points behind Verstappen prior to the summer break. The gap currently stands at 187.

With 180 still on offer this year, Verstappen could yet surpass the 290-point buffer he had over his teammate last season. That was already the largest in F1 history.

Perez sits eighth in the championship, having failed to score a podium since the Chinese Grand Prix on 21 April. Verstappen has won seven races and taken 11 podiums in the same car.

The former Sauber driver will argue that McLaren’s ascent to the top of the championship was inevitable. But Red Bull engineers warned Christian Horner in the summer that Perez’s form could cost them their title.

Liam Lawson beating Sergio Perez could be a decisive blow in Red Bull race

As part of a Q&A for BBC Sport, one fan asked reporter Andrew Benson what Lawson has to do between now and Abu Dhabi. If Red Bull have set specific targets for the New Zealander, then they haven’t made them public.

But Benson says that Lawson beating Perez in a meaningful session would be ‘very bad news’. RB have scored just 34 points this season, so they shouldn’t be able to get close to the senior team.

During his five-race stint last year (when Ricciardo was out with a broken hand), Lawson outqualified Perez at the Singapore GP. This was seen as an aberration, with Red Bull woefully out of sorts at Marina Bay after winning every other race.

“Given the disparity between the two cars, Lawson should not realistically be able to beat Perez on track for the rest of the season,” Benson wrote. “If he does, that would be very bad news for the Mexican’s career.”

Where Red Bull would rank in constructors’ championship with two Sergio Perez

There have been moments this year where Perez has come under immediate threat. Ricciardo looked set to return to Red Bull following the Belgian GP, but the team decided against it at a meeting after the race.

There was even talk that Perez could drop off the grid after the Mexican GP later this month. Sacking him beforehand would have risked a backlash, and spurned lucrative commercial opportunities.

Now, Perez knows he’s safe until the end of the season. There’s little benefit in making a change now because the championship is, in all likelihood, already lost.

All he can do is try to recapture the form he showed in Azerbaijan, where he outqualified Verstappen for the first time all year, and hope Red Bull’s ‘magical’ upgrade package boosts his prospects.

With two drivers operating at Perez’s level, Red Bull would be fourth in the championship, 41 points behind Mercedes. This may be a level of underperformance that they simply can’t tolerate heading into next year.