Will Buxton’s bold prediction that F1 team will make driver swap for the last three races of 2024

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In the end, no Formula 1 team decided to change their driver line-up during the summer break. As many as three teams had been considering early alterations.

Most notably, Red Bull were mulling the future of Sergio Perez. Perez’s contract, only signed in June, included a break clause that became active if he fell more than 100 points behind Max Verstappen.

That, in turn, was a blow to Daniel Ricciardo, who had hoped to return to the team. Remarkably, there was also a risk that Ricciardo would forfeit his spot with the junior outfit, with Liam Lawson applying pressure, but he too will still be on the grid come Zandvoort.

Further back, Williams were actively exploring alternatives to Logan Sargeant. Esteban Ocon had a seat fitting at Grove with a view to a potential 2024 move, but he’s now joining midfield rivals Haas for next year instead.

Williams also requested special dispensation to field Kimi Antonelli before the recent changes to FIA superlicence rules. Now that they’ve signed Carlos Sainz, however, there’s little prospect of them training the Mercedes junior for four months.

While all three drivers are safe for now, then, they will still be under intense scrutiny after the break. Ricciardo may have just one race to save his seat, while team principal James Vowles says Logan Sargeant has to earn the right to see out the season.

Will Buxton reckons Red Bull could axe Sergio Perez after Brazilian Grand Prix

Likewise, the battle continues for Perez. The team have kept faith in him partly because they believe the upcoming tracks suit him – he’s previously won in Baku (twice) and Singapore.

One journalist has claimed that Red Bull could reassess the situation after Singapore if Perez hasn’t shown any signs of improvement. But Will Buxton says they could wait even longer.

Liberty Media fear a major loss of revenue at the Mexico City Grand Prix if he’s no longer on the grid. As such, the F1 commercial rights holders lobbied for Red Bull to keep him.

That race falls in the middle of a triple-header in late October. F1TV’s Buxton reckons Red Bull could drop Perez after the final leg in Brazil, with a three-week gap before the last three races.

Asked to make one bold prediction for the rest of 2024, he told the official F1 site: “Red Bull change their line-up for the final three races of the season but the constructors’ championship has already been lost to McLaren. Verstappen clings onto the drivers’ title by single points.”

Helmut Marko tells Sergio Perez to ‘go to church’ more

Red Bull will have to pay Perez £3.6m if they want to cancel his contract. They will also lose the benefit of his extensive commercial ties in Latin America.

However, they stand to lose just under £8m if McLaren beat them in the constructors’ championship. The Woking outfit have closed the gap to 42 points amid the Mexican’s recent slide.

This isn’t an entirely unfamiliar situation for Perez. His 2023 season also unravelled after a strong start.

During that period last year, Helmut Marko joked that Perez should ‘go to church’ more in the hope of ending his rut. It’s hard to escape the feeling that he’s trapped in a cycle right now, one that likely ends in his dismissal.