Why Daniel Ricciardo may only have one race left to save his RB seat

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Daniel Ricciardo signed off for the summer break on a high by scoring a point at the Dutch Grand Prix. Ricciardo initially crossed the line 11th but was promoted into the top 10 by George Russell’s disqualification.

It was the Australian’s third return in six races as he displays improved form relative to teammate Yuki Tsunoda. Tsunoda still leads the qualifying head-to-head 9-5, but Ricciardo has narrowed the gap to 8-6 in the races.

The veteran has been quicker in three of the last four qualifying sessions, and finished ahead in four of the last six Grands Prix. It’s still not quite the level of consistency he would like, but it’s heading in the right direction.

Ricciardo’s recent improvement wasn’t enough, however, to earn a promotion to Red Bull. Indeed, his occasional off-weekends may have sewn enough doubts to keep Sergio Perez in the seat beyond the summer break.

Perez could still lose his seat this year, with the team management likely to reassess the situation after the Singapore Grand Prix if he doesn’t improve. But for the moment, Ricciardo must focus on keeping his RB drive, and hope that a sustained upturn in form naturally strengthens his Red Bull case.

The team announced at the Canadian GP in June that they had taken up their option to extend Tsunoda’s deal for another year. But Ricciardo’s future remains uncertain.

Liam Lawson contract clause makes Dutch Grand Prix vital for Daniel Ricciardo

Throughout the season, Ricciardo has been under threat from Liam Lawson. Lawson stepped into his car for five races last year after he broke his wrist in a Zandvoort crash, and his impressive performances have put him on the brink of an F1 seat.

Ricciardo has done enough to keep him at bay for now, but a vital contract deadline is looming. If Red Bull haven’t offered Lawson a seat at either of their teams by 1 September, then they have to let him leave.

That’s according to Soy Motor, who state that August is consequently the ‘key’ month for Lawson’s future. There’s only one race remaining this month – the Dutch Grand Prix on the 25th – with the Italian GP scheduled for the first day of the autumn.

If Ricciardo delivers, then it could see the 22-year-old end up on the open market. Equally, it’s conceivable that another unconvincing weekend could cost him his drive.

There’s also the option to parachute Lawson into Red Bull in place of Perez. But that would mean giving the Mexican just one more race to assuage any doubts, which would seem counterintuitive.

Max Verstappen social media post with Daniel Ricciardo wasn’t ‘the brightest move’

Red Bull allegedly told Verstappen that they would sack Perez after the Belgian GP. But something changed before the team meeting the following day, and they opted to give him another chance.

Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim intervened to help Perez, as did F1’s commercial rights holders Liberty Media. It’s unclear if that swayed Red Bull.

Verstappen travelled back from Spa with Ricciardo and shared a video of their helicopter flight on social media. One journalist believes this wasn’t the ‘brightest move’, because it inevitably stoked the speculation.

Ricciardo finds himself in an extraordinary situation this year as he hovers somewhere between promotion and dismissal. If he does lose his RB seat, then it’s hard to see him continuing in F1 elsewhere.