Why potential Max Verstappen exit could lead to ‘the end of Red Bull in Formula 1’

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Max Verstappen’s Red Bull future is in doubt. He’s the clear favourite to win the world championship this year, making it four in a row, but that may not be enough to convince him to stay.

Verstappen may be concerned by Red Bull’s trajectory. They started the year with a dominant car but they haven’t won for eight races after a series of missteps in the development battle with McLaren.

There have also been a series of high-profile departures, led by legendary designer Adrian Newey. Sporting director Jonathan Wheatley was instrumental in Verstappen winning the 2021 title, but he’s joining Audi as team principal, while chief strategist Will Courtenay is bound for McLaren.

Christian Horner remains in situ but he’s publicly fallen out with Jos Verstappen, who sees him as responsible for many of the team’s problems. The reigning champion must also think about the major 2026 regulation changes, when Red Bull will take the risk of setting up their own powertrains division.

Verstappen has been heavily linked with Mercedes, who tried unsuccessfully to sign him this year. Aston Martin are also determined to land Verstappen and can offer him the chance to reunite with Newey.

Another alarming possibility is emerging too – retirement. Following his punishment for swearing at the Singapore GP, Verstappen has worried Helmut Marko by threatening to quit if he doesn’t like the sport’s direction.

Gerard Bos can envisage Red Bull leaving F1 after possible Max Verstappen exit

Speaking to formule1.nl, reporter Gerard Bos explained how Verstappen’s prospective departure could set in motion a chain of events culminating in ‘the end of Red Bull’. While they won’t ‘pull the plug’ immediately, they could lose their enthusiasm.

Verstappen leaving would be a commercial blow but it could also lower the team’s on-track ceiling. Teammate Sergio Perez sits eighth in the championship with just 144 points.

If they had two drivers performing at that level, they’d be below McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes in the championship. Should they regress into ‘the midfield’ with both of their teams, Bos feels they could walk away.

“One thing also provokes the other,” he said. “If one leaves, the other might also look a little further. It is a kind of domino effect. And all that unrest surrounding Horner at the beginning of the season also has an effect, Jos Verstappen has already indicated that. That cannot but have an influence.

“Maybe it will ultimately be the end of Red Bull in Formula 1. Not that they will pull the plug, but there is so much going on. If everything falls apart, and Verstappen leaves, then it will be a lot worse in percentage terms.

“Because then you are not second with this car, look at Perez, but then you are further back. If they then drive in the midfield with the four cars they have and the other branch wants to focus more on another sport, then they could just leave Formula 1.”

Who could Red Bull target to replace Max Verstappen?

Red Bull will need an A-list replacement if Verstappen does move on. It will not only preserve their sporting ambitions, it will also lift morale in the camp.

One potential candidate is McLaren’s Oscar Piastri. Red Bull are ‘very impressed’ with Piastri and have an existing relationship with his manager Mark Webber.

Webber may advise him to accept their offer on the proviso that Verstappen is gone. He can then become the team’s number-one driver, rather than scrapping with Lando Norris.

As an alternative, Horner has publicly expressed interest in George Russell. The Briton’s contract is up next year – coinciding with an exit clause in Verstappen’s Red Bull contract – so the timings may align.