‘Very reliable source’ shares just how far off the pace Red Bull’s 2026 engine is likely to be

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Red Bull have accepted they will be behind their more established rivals with their first F1 engine in 2026. But the question is how big the margin will be.

It would be naive to think that Red Bull, who are building their own power unit for the first time, can match juggernauts like Mercedes and Ferrari from the beginning. In fact, Christian Horner said it would be ’embarrassing’ if that was the case.

The concern is that the team’s former designer Adrian Newey says F1 could be an engine formula in 2026. On that basis, even if Red Bull nail the chassis, a horsepower deficit could stop Max Verstappen from competing.

At the moment, the consensus in the paddock is that Mercedes and Ferrari are indeed leading the way. Audi are also entering the sport, while Honda have switched their supply from the two Red Bull teams to Aston Martin.

Red Bull’s first engine predicted to be two-tenths off the best

Speaking on his self-titled podcast, former F1 commentator James Allen revealed the prediction he’d received from a ‘very reliable source’. They think Red Bull will lose around two-tenths per lap at first due to an engine deficit.

This is, of course, an estimate, but it comes from ‘the community of engine builders’. For reference, Alpine, who currently sit bottom of the constructors’ championship, are believed to be losing three to three and a half-tenths.

A report earlier this year claimed Red Bull’s engine is running out of energy before completing a lap during bench testing sessions. As it stands, the battery will account for 50% of the car’s output, but the Milton Keynes outfit want that proportion to be reduced.

“I was told a few months ago by a very reliable source in the middle of all that scene that they reckon they’d be – very hard to say, but there is a lot of chat among the community of engine builders – a couple of tenths off on the engine side,” Allen said.

“If you consider that Alpine is probably 0.3, 0.35 down at the moment, and you look at what that does to their performance, it gives you a bit of an idea of what Red Bull might be like next year.

“You’ve also then got the complexity of the aerodynamic changes coming in next year, which makes it very, very hard to predict who’s going to do well.”

The F1 rule change that could save Red Bull if their engine is down on their rivals

Dan Fallows spent 15 years at Red Bull between 2006 and 2021. In that time, there were two particularly significant regulation changes – the first in 2009, and the second in 2014.

Red Bull capitalised on the former to become contenders, though they came alive too late in the season to topple Brawn. Five years later, Mercedes ended their run of dominance.

Fallows says the team have previously fallen behind at the start of a ruleset but then made furious progress by flexing their development muscles. Red Bull won the title in 2022 at the start of the ground-effect ruleset, but they were closely matched with Ferrari at first before pulling away.

Fallows said: “The thing about Red Bull is that their technical team is very strong, they have that ability to be able to get a new car to the level it needs to be pretty quickly. They demonstrated in this last ruleset that they are able to innovate and follow a new concept through to its completion, which I think is really important for new regs from an aerodynamic point of view.

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“The other thing they’re very good is that a lot of their departments work very well together from a technical point of view. They have an incredible manufacturing facility that can turn things around very quickly, but they’re also very good at communicating. That, typically in the past, has meant that their greatest strength is in-season development.

“The reason they were so dominant at the beginning of this ruleset is because they also managed to nail the initial concept. When I was there, one of the things we found more frustrating was that our ability to launch with a great car was not as great as some other people, but the in-season development was very, very strong.

“If the power unit is slightly down, and realistically given the magnitude of the task they undertook – it’s a phenomenal undertaking – it would be phenomenal if they’re there or thereabouts in terms of their power units.

“If they’re not quite there, there is going to be this equalisation of power that’s going to come in at some point. That’s something that could work for their benefit. They’ll be looking for something that’s solid enough as a base, perhaps not expecting to be championship material straight away, but looking to forge their way up as quickly as possible.”