Max Verstappen is trying to predict the future as he considers whether to leave Red Bull. He hasn’t fully committed to the Milton Keynes outfit for 2026.
Based on Red Bull’s recent regression alone, there is cause for concern. This time last year, Verstappen was 81 points ahead of Lando Norris at the top of the championship – now he’s 61 points off the pace.
Despite numerous upgrade packages in the last year, the technical team, now without Adrian Newey, have failed to cure the car’s fundamental handling ills. And there have been occasional operational errors too.
But the upcoming regulation changes represent a reset. Any team change is inherent with risk, but it’s harder than ever to gauge the pecking order.
Max Verstappen knows Red Bull are ‘far away’ from addressing huge 2026 engine issue
According to Gazzetta dello Sport, Mercedes are claiming they have the lead in the 2026 engine battle. The new power units will be 50% electric and run on sustainable fuels.
Mercedes don’t have any firm ‘evidence’ to back up their claim. Crucially for Verstappen, though, ‘sources very close’ to Red Bull admit that they’re struggling.
In various ‘bench testing sessions’, Red Bull’s first-in house engine has repeatedly run out of electrical energy on the straights. This problem has occurred in simulations of Italy, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Belgium.
Red Bull are ‘far away’ from being able to sustain energy for an entire lap. Other manufacturers faced a similar issue earlier in the development process, but they’ve now come up with software fixes.
Christian Horner has pushed for changes to the power unit rules to make the internal combustion engine dominant again. Despite hiring a swathe of engineers from former partners Honda and rivals Mercedes, his team are facing a big ‘question mark’.
Christian Horner has virtually admitted Red Bull will be lagging behind
Verstappen says he’d love to stay at Red Bull for the rest of his career, but he might be forced to u-turn on that stance if they can’t get their engine up to standard.
As it stands, there’s a very real chance rivals will sail past him on certain straights when his battery depletes, which would be frustrating and humiliating in equal measure.
Speaking on Friday, Horner said it would be ’embarrassing’ if Red Bull Powertrains were ahead of Mercedes next year. That was effectively an admission that they will be lagging behind at first.
That shouldn’t come as a surprise, but how long will it take to close the gap? Based on the start of the previous rules cycle in 2014, it could be several years.
Receive exclusive F1 news and updates twice a week to your mailbox
