Popular F1 driver has an ‘almost 0% chance’ of staying on the grid, and fans aren’t happy

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The opening practice session at the British Grand Prix gave two young drivers the chance to audition for F1 seats. And both could be pleased with how they fared.

Alpine have loaned Paul Aron to Sauber, allowing their reserve driver to take part in FP1 at Silverstone. The Enstone outfit can test him in an official F1 session, while their competitors can tick off one of the four required rookie outings.

Aron finished the session 17th fastest but three spots above teammate Gabriel Bortoleto, albeit on faster tyres. More encouragingly, he was able to outpace Oliver Bearman and Pierre Gasly.

The Estonian’s commendable showing will slightly increase the pressure on Franco Colapinto, who’s struggling over at Alpine. Likewise, Arvid Lindblad strengthened his chances of joining the Red Bull F1 stable next year.

Lindblad was 14th, but a 0.5-second margin to Max Verstappen was respectable given the gulf in pedigree and experience.

Yuki Tsunoda about to drop out of Formula 1 completely

Lindblad is likely to partner Liam Lawson at Racing Bulls next season, with Isack Hadjar moving up to the top team. Yuki Tsunoda will be the driver sacrificed.

BBC Sport’s Andrew Benson had previously reported that Tsunoda was ‘certain’ to lose his seat, having scored just seven points in nine weekends since replacing Lawson. But during FP1, Benson went even further.

He now says the chances of Tsunoda dropping off the F1 grid altogether are greater than 99%. Only months after a dream move, his future in the sport has been cast into doubt.

“Almost 0% chance of Yuki Tsunoda being in Formula 1 next year, he’s had his chance,” Benson wrote. “I think what will happen is Isack Hadjar gets promoted to Red Bull and Arvid Linblad gets one of the Racing Bulls seats and they will have to make a decision about Liam Lawson.”

Why Yuki Tsunoda’s Red Bull telemetry is so worrying

In a poll conducted by The Race last year, Tsunoda was voted one of the 10 most popular drivers on the grid. And BBC readers also made clear that they were unhappy with Benson’s update – 133 of them downvoted it, while only 61 ‘liked’ it.

Tsunoda has been linked with Aston Martin, who will link up with his backers Honda next year. However, the prospect of a move has receded – only Max Verstappen or George Russell could tempt Lawrence Stroll to oust one of his under-contract duo.

Cadillac have also shown interest in Tsunoda ahead of their F1 debut in 2026. But Benson is clearly confident that he won’t get that seat.

Jolyon Palmer has studied the data, and found that Tsunoda isn’t necessarily making mistakes. There’s no ‘tangible’ reason for his desperately poor results, and that makes them even more concerning.