One F1 driver now looks ‘certain’ to lose his seat despite scoring points five times this season

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Six Formula 1 drivers entered the 2025 season with less than a year remaining on their contracts. For some, an extension looks like a formality.

For instance, George Russell will soon sign a new Mercedes deal, according to multiple reports. Russell bagged the fourth race win of his career in Montreal last weekend.

There’s little prospect of Russell’s teammate Kimi Antonelli losing his seat either, despite persistent links with Max Verstappen. Another of F1’s rookies, Isack Hadjar, will definitely stay within the Red Bull programme.

After replacing Jack Doohan, Franco Colapinto only signed a five-race deal at Alpine. That contract will come to an end after this weekend’s Austrian Grand Prix, but Colapinto boosted his prospects by outperforming Pierre Gasly in Canada.

Liam Lawson has been one of the biggest underperformers on the F1 grid this season, having lost his Red Bull seat to Yuki Tsunoda after just two races. But the timelines could end up working in Lawson’s favour.

Yuki Tsunoda looks ‘certain’ to lose Red Bull seat at the end of 2025

Tsunoda has been an upgrade on Lawson, but still hasn’t managed to break the second driver ‘curse’ at Red Bull. He’s scored points five times this season, four of them in Red Bull colours.

The Japanese driver has reached Q3 three times, but has started in the bottom three on the grid on four occasions. That highlights the inconsistency of his performances.

And it sounds as if he could pay the price. According to BBC Sport’s Andrew Benson, Tsunoda ‘looks certain to be dropped by Red Bull’ at the end of the season.

Only a ‘major uplift in performance’ can stop him being replaced by Hadjar, who has outscored him at sister team Racing Bulls. Lawson’s future remains an ‘open question’ amid the rise of F2 star Arvid Lindblad.

Lindblad has impressed in Red Bull testing, but he appears to be the only youngster in their academy ready to make the jump to F1. Thus, Lawson could hold onto his seat for another year.

Juan Pablo Montoya says Red Bull have picked the wrong second driver

To compound Tsunoda’s problems, his backers, Honda, are splitting with Red Bull at the end of the season. They will be supplying Aston Martin instead from 2026.

While Tsunoda has been linked with Aston Martin, Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll are under contract. That means he’d be the reserve driver at best if he were to join the Silverstone outfit.

According to Juan Pablo Montoya, Hadjar should have replaced Tsunoda already. But Christian Horner and Helmut Marko have said that the incumbent 25-year-old will see out the season.

Though Hadjar has admitted doubt over his readiness for Red Bull, Horner and Marko won’t hesitate to promote him if they see him as the best option.