Max Verstappen’s February prediction for 2024 F1 season now looks eerily accurate

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Max Verstappen heads into the summer break with a 78-point cushion over Lando Norris at the top of the Formula 1 drivers’ championship. He’s the overwhelming favourite to win what would be a fourth consecutive title.

In truth, this has looked like a foregone conclusion from the outset. Building on the historic dominance of the 2023 season, Verstappen crushed his opposition in four of the first five races.

It would likely have been a clean sweep had he not retired from the Australian GP after a visor tear-off lodged itself in his brake duct. He was already 25 points clear by the time he lost a race that he finished, with Lando Norris profiting from a perfectly timed safety car to win in Miami.

That race saw the introduction of a transformative McLaren upgrade. Since then, the Woking outfit have arguably had the best all-round car on the grid.

While Ferrari’s challenge has faded, Mercedes made a breakthrough with their W15 in Canada. Heading into the summer break, they have won three of the last four, although their resurgence will almost certainly come too late to challenge in either championship.

The upshot is that Verstappen claimed 58.1% of his total 2024 points in the first seven rounds of the season, and 41.9% in the seven since (though there has only been one Sprint in that period). Fortunately, Lewis Hamilton is the only other driver to win multiple races, with the chasing pack all taking points off one another.

Max Verstappen may have correctly predicted his race win total for 2024

Speaking in Bahrain before the 2024 season started, Verstappen was asked to predict his victory tally for the year ahead. He was coming off an unprecedented haul of 19 in 2023.

“How many Grand Prix will Max Verstappen win this season? Twelve,” he said.

At the time, and even more so after the first five races, that seemed like a ‘humble’ estimate. But it’s actually proven to be eerily prescient.

If the Dutchman repeats his win rate from the first half of the season (exactly 50%) over the final 10 races, he will indeed finish with 12 victories. It should be said that he’s only won three out of nine since McLaren’s Miami upgrade, a reduced rate of 33.3%.

But the competitive landscape shifts quickly in F1 and Red Bull could reassert themselves after the break as they rethink their development strategy. The season resumes in Zandvoort, a track where home hero Verstappen boasts a 100% record since the inaugural 2021 event.

Why Lando Norris doesn’t think he has ‘what it takes’ to beat Max Verstappen right now

The fact that Verstappen has been able to build his lead, even though Red Bull have surrendered their advantage, is a testament to his consistency. Over the past nine rounds, he’s scored five podiums, and he mounted a solid recovery from P11 to fourth in Belgium.

There have been occasional mishaps. He finished fifth after an incident with Hamilton at the end of the Hungarian GP, and also picked up a penalty for colliding with Norris in a late battle for the lead in Austria.

But his rivals have faltered far more often. Indeed, Norris admits he doesn’t have ‘what it takes’ to win a title right now as he looks to cut the mistakes out of his driving.

Despite his commanding advantage, Verstappen’s pursuit of perfection is relentless. Red Bull engineers told Karun Chandhok that they are motivated, rather than cowed, by his occasionally angry radio messages.