Jolyon Palmer predicts 48-podium F1 driver will beat Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri at Azerbaijan Grand Prix

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Lando Norris will continue his efforts to reduce Oscar Piastri’s championship lead at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. But Jolyon Palmer thinks Norris will miss out on the podium completely.

McLaren were well beaten at the Italian GP last time out, with Red Bull’s Max Verstappen winning the race by 19 seconds. Even though it’s a street circuit, Baku is somewhat similar to Monza in character, demanding a low-downforce set-up.

This was the scene of Piastri’s second Formula 1 victory last year. The Australian produced one of the best overtaking moves of the year at turn one as he dived past polesitter Charles Leclerc, which proved to be a race-winning manoeuvre.

Norris’ hopes were squandered by a Q1 elimination due to poorly-timed yellow flags, though he fought back from 16th on the grid to fourth. He can’t afford another mishap this year with Piastri already 31 points ahead.

Jolyon Palmer picks Charles Leclerc to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Speaking on the F1-Nation podcast, Palmer predicted that Leclerc would take Ferrari’s first victory of the year at the 17th attempt. No driver has scored more podiums without winning a race in 2025 (Leclerc has five).

The Monegasque has never actually won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, but he does come into the race on a superb streak of four straight Baku poles. He doesn’t necessarily need the best car to be quickest here, suggesting it’s one of his strongest tracks.

Palmer thinks Piastri will push him ‘the whole way’ but ultimately finished second, in a reverse of last year. And Verstappen will then beat Norris to the final podium place.

Assuming Norris finishes fourth in this projection, the gap at the top would extend to 37 points.

“I’m going to stick to my guns,” said Palmer. “Charles Leclerc wins the race. He takes pole, he hangs on, learns from last year.

“Then it’s going to be… it’s got to be a McLaren fighting him the whole way. Let’s go with Oscar to do it. He did it in Baku last year, and Max for P3.

“I don’t think McLaren are going to have it their own way, so I’m going to go one Ferrari, two McLaren, three Red Bull.”

What Charles Leclerc has said about Ferrari’s Baku chances

Ferrari’s lack of raw pace means 2025 won’t be a memorable year for Leclerc. But one could argue it’s been his most complete season yet.

He has delivered relentlessly, reaching Q3 in 15 out of 16 Grands Prix, averaging double-figure returns every weekend and beating Lewis Hamilton 27-8 in the overall head-to-head.

Martin Brundle says Hamilton is realising how fast Leclerc is, having been subject to one of the biggest thrashings of any 2025 driver. One could argue his performances merit better results.

Leclerc was optimistic that Ferrari could fight for the Baku win, and also identified Singapore and Las Vegas as potential opportunities. But after a rather anonymous run to fourth at Monza, he’s started to question whether that’s realistic.