Growing confidence Sergio Perez will stay at Red Bull because of one ‘weird’ issue

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Sergio Perez is 242 points behind Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen heading into the season-ending triple-header. That enormous gulf between the two drivers has likely cost Red Bull their constructors’ crown after a two-year reign.

Last season, Perez finished even further behind – a record-breaking 290 points. But amid Red Bull’s unprecedented dominance, that was still good enough for second in the standings.

Given that he’s failed to score in each of the last two races, it’s feasible that Perez could extend that ignominious record this year. But where Verstappen almost always picked up the maximum 25 points last year, his average finishing position over the last 15 races is third, so the gap is even more damning.

For Liam Lawson, an alternative option for 2025, the bar would be extremely low. Perez has been six-tenths slower than Verstappen in qualifying and an F1-high half a second slower in the races.

If he could cut those gaps in half – still allowing a comfortable buffer for the Dutchman – Red Bull would be considerably better off. That will no doubt factor into the thinking of Christian Horner and Helmut Marko.

And yet, speaking on ESPN’s Unlapped podcast, journalist Nate Saunders said he was increasingly ‘convinced’ that Perez would stay. That could be bad news for both Lawson and Franco Colapinto.

Sergio Perez’s ‘weird’ contract extension should keep him at Red Bull

Perez came into 2024 approaching the end of his contract. Had Red Bull stayed patient, it’s highly likely that they would have parted with the Mexican at the end of the season.

But, to quote Saunders, they made the ‘weird’ decision to extend his contract in June, just a third of the way through a 24-race season. While they hoped that clarity would benefit Perez, they’ll surely regret their premature move at this point.

It will now take a ‘crazy’ turnaround for Perez not to remain alongside Verstappen for the Australian GP next March. His new deal guaranteed 2025 and also included a performance-based option for 2026.

“Honestly, the more I talk about it, the more I’m convinced Perez will stay next year,” Saunders said. “Unless something crazy happens at the end, I think that Red Bull backed themselves into a weird corner by signing him to a new deal.

“I think if they hadn’t done that, this decision would be made for them. Lawson would probably be driving there next year. You could bring Colapinto into the junior team.”

How Liam Lawson could still race for Red Bull in 2025, even if Sergio Perez keeps his drive

There appears to be optimism in Perez’s homeland that he will remain on the grid. The first tickets for the Mexico City Grand Prix sold out in 15 minutes earlier this week.

But the race is scheduled for the end of October, and there’s no guarantee he makes it that far even if he survives the winter. Lawson could replace Perez midway through 2025 if they continue on their respective trajectories.

Of course, that could depend on what the 34-year-old’s contract looks like. Without a specific break clause, Red Bull could face a huge payout.

They would also lose out on some of F1’s largest commercial incentives. Telmex have pumped £103m into Red Bull since Perez joined at the start of 2021.