FIA ruling confirms Toto Wolff’s winter testing theory about Red Bull was right all along

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Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff was involved in a back-and-forth with Max Verstappen and Red Bull during testing.

2026 marked the start of a new era for Laurent Mekies’ team as they raced with their own power unit for the first time. That prompted them to play down expectations.

But in the winter, it was Red Bull who caught the eye of favourites Mercedes, rather than Ferrari or reigning champions McLaren.

Toto Wolff knew the truth about Red Bull’s 2026 F1 car after just one day of testing

Speaking on the first day of Bahrain testing, Wolff said Red Bull’s engine was the ‘most complete’. That was a stunning claim at the time given the long-standing buzz around Mercedes and the inexperience of RBPT.

What are your thoughts on Mercedes being granted an engine upgrade through ADUO despite their 2026 dominance?

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Indeed, Max Verstappen dismissed Wolff’s comments as diversionary mind games and predicted that Mercedes would leave Red Bull behind once they turned their engine up in Australia.

Sure enough, the Silver Arrows were several tenths clear of the pack in Melbourne qualifying. While the gap has narrowed since, they have taken every pole position and Grand Prix victory.

By contrast, Red Bull are fourth in the standings with only two podiums to their name and less than a third of Mercedes’ points (72 vs 244), albeit partly due to unreliability. Verstappen retired in Monaco after their fourth race-ending failure of the season.

But it appears Verstappen and Isack Hadjar are being held back by their chassis, rather than their power unit – the reverse of pre-season expectations.

Indeed, after studying the data from the first five rounds, the FIA have cast the bombshell verdict that Red Bull’s engine is actually the benchmark. This means they won’t have access to Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO) unlike Ferrari, Audi, Honda and, to a lesser extent, Mercedes.

Understandably, the FIA’s ADUO ruling is proving controversial. It only takes into account the ICE rather than the battery, and there will be demands to broaden the criteria.

But in the context of Wolff’s pre-season comments and Mercedes’ off-the-record messaging, perhaps the news shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Admittedly, Wolff wasn’t 100% right – he also said Red Bull had the fastest car – but it turns out he wasn’t bluffing about their engine after all.