32-win driver will ‘100%’ replace Max Verstappen if he joins Mercedes in 2025

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If Max Verstappen does end up going to Mercedes at the end of this season, French journalist Frederic Ferret is ‘100%’ sure he’ll be replaced at Red Bull by Fernando Alonso.

At the height of the turmoil at Red Bull over the last few months, Max Verstappen was deemed the ‘hottest candidate’ to replace Lewis Hamilton.

Speaking on the F1 Nation Podcast, Ferret shared what he will think at Red Bull if the three-time world champion decides to move on.

Alonso will ‘100%’ replace Verstappen at Red Bull if he joins Mercedes

The 2024 driver’s market is hanging on a knife edge right now, with nearly every team waiting for their rivals to make the first move.

Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari came out of the blue and opened up an unexpected seat at a top team and put Carlos Sainz on the market.

So many drivers are out of contract that there are too many moving parts to be able to accurately predict what the grid will look like next year.

There’s now an unexpected extra factor that Max Verstappen might not be as committed to Red Bull as first imagined which could open up an opportunity for Fernando Alonso.

The two-time world champion could leave Aston Martin at the end of the year, although they’re reportedly preparing a new deal for the 42-year-old.

He will know he can’t go on forever and the opportunity to drive the fastest car on the grid – even for one season – might be enough of a motivator to push him to make one more move in his F1 career.

Alonso has waited more than 10 years to stand on the top step of the podium in Formula 1 and while it looks like that wait won’t end in 2024, joining the Austrian outfit next year would certainly boost his chances.

Alonso might have option of Red Bull or Mercedes for 2025

Asked what Red Bull’s lineup will be for next year, Ferret said: “Tom [Clarkson], if Max [Verstappen] leaves, it’s going to be Fernando [Alonso], 100%, with Checo [Perez] or [Liam] Lawson.”

While Verstappen has been linked with moving from Red Bull to Mercedes, Fernando Alonso could be after that seat as well.

He’s not going to close off any options at this point and is on the list of replacements Toto Wolff is considering.

The likelihood is that Andrea Kimi Antonelli won’t quite be ready to step up to Formula 1 in 2025.

Other drivers who have dominated F2 in their first seasons – such as Oscar Piastri – didn’t necessarily hit the ground running, but Antonelli is in a very competitive field including the likes of Oliver Bearman.

It means Mercedes might be looking for a more short-term option which Alonso fits, although if Verstappen is on the market then – like Ferrari with Hamilton – they won’t be able to turn him down.

The next few races might help Alonso decide what decision he wants to make for next season.

While much of the driver market depends on his next steps, any declaration from Verstappen that he might want a new challenge would have widespread implications.