Yuki Tsunoda’s last chance of beating Liam Lawson to final Red Bull seat might come too late

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Yuki Tsunoda knows that his Formula 1 career hangs in the balance with three races remaining in the 2025 season.

Red Bull will have been relieved to hear Max Verstappen was staying with the team for the 2026 season, despite speculation that he could join Mercedes.

However, Yuki Tsunoda is still waiting to discover whether he will be retained for next season after the most challenging campaign of his F1 career.

Last year, Red Bull were so impressed with Tsunoda that they handed him a new contract by the time they reached Montreal, but the pressure has been very different since his promotion from Racing Bulls after two races in 2025.

It looks like Tsunoda is in a head-to-head battle with Liam Lawson to stay on the grid next year, with Isack Hadjar set to be promoted alongside Verstappen, and Arvid Lindblad looking likely to be promoted from Formula 2.

Tsunoda will be looking at the final three races of the campaign to try and impress Laurent Mekies, but will worry that his best circuit of the season, Yas Marina, might come too late to potentially change Red Bull’s mind.

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Yuki Tsunoda’s brilliant Abu Dhabi Grand Prix form might come too late to save his Red Bull seat

The final three races of the year are in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, and Tsunoda has a mixed record at each of these tracks.

He’s scored two points in Las Vegas, but never finished in the top 10 in Qatar. However, his record at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is fantastic.

During his rookie season, Tsunoda qualified eighth and finished fourth, which is still his best-ever result in Formula 1.

In the next three seasons, Tsunoda has finished 11th, eighth and 12th, and he’s scored more points in Abu Dhabi than at any other circuit (16, level with Austin).

He even won driver of the day in 2023 after a career-best qualifying at the time of sixth before finishing eighth and leading the only five laps of his Formula 1 career.

Speaking in 2021 about his P4 finish, Tsunoda said: “I’m so happy.

“I think overall this week the pace was really good. Also, the race pace, I didn’t expect it to be that good, to be honest.

“In the end, I managed to have Bottas, so quite happy. I had a little bit of a mistake in the straight before Turn 9.

“Maybe I could have passed, but it was all so tight – this is the next step, but a good way to finish the year.

“Also, for the next season, I’m happy with this week: the confidence comes back – a long journey that this confidence comes back, but in the end I managed to get the best result of the year, so I’m just happy.”

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Liam Lawson’s resurgent 2025 form at Racing Bulls could be costly to Yuki Tsunoda

For context, Liam Lawson has only raced at the Yas Marina circuit once in Formula 1, and didn’t have a great time.

He qualified 12th, one position behind Tsunoda, who was his teammate at the time, but finished 17th and last.

Lawson suffered from a late brake issue after RB made a mistake during his pit stop, costing him any chance of scoring points.

The New Zealander is currently above Tsunoda in the drivers’ championship, and his best result of fifth at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is better than anything the Japanese driver has achieved in 2025.

Red Bull insist that they’re in no rush to decide on their driver line-ups, but what happens in Las Vegas and Qatar could make up their minds before Tsunoda has the chance to race at his best-performing circuit.