2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix race predictions: F1 experts share their opinions on Baku race weekend

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Formula 1 is heading to Baku for the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, as McLaren set their focus on securing the constructors’ championship title.

The seventeenth race of the year will take place this weekend, following Max Verstappen‘s victory in Monza at the start of September.

Verstappen took pole position on Saturday, whilst also setting the record for the fastest lap in Formula 1 history. The four-time world champion then claimed the Italian Grand Prix victory and set the record for the fastest race ever.

McLaren could take the constructors’ championship title this weekend, with the team needing to outscore Ferrari by nine points to claim victory.

The drivers’ championship is also heating up with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris locked in a tight fight with just eight races remaining. Piastri is currently leading by 31 points, with Norris ahead of Verstappen by 63 points.

Our expert writers have given their predictions for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, including whether McLaren will take the championship this weekend and who will be the biggest disappointment.

Who will win the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Ben Evans – Oscar Piastri: “Piastri might be wondering how he’s only won two of the last seven races, considering how well he’s been driving.

“The Australian was unlucky to miss out in Hungary, his penalty at Silverstone was controversial to say the least, although Norris getting the better of him at Monza will have sharpened his focus going into the final third of the season.

“Piastri showed last year how quick he is around the streets of Baku, and while Leclerc has a phenomenal record in qualifying in Azerbaijan, McLaren have taken an additional step this year which should discount the Monegasque driver from the conversation.

“Verstappen and Norris will both pose a serious threat, but Piastri’s drivers’ championship ambitions should be back on track after Sunday’s race.”

Will McLaren take the constructors’ title at the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer: “McLaren go to Baku for the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix knowing that they could make history with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris by winning the constructors’ title in the City of Wind. It would even be the first time McLaren retain the team’s title since 1991.

“McLaren head to Baku atop the standings with a 337-point lead over Ferrari, as well as by 357 to Mercedes and by 379 to Red Bull, with 346 to play for after this weekend. So, Piastri and Norris will rule Ferrari out for the constructors’ title by outscoring them by nine points.

“Mercedes can delay McLaren’s coronation by outscoring Piastri and Norris by 12 or more points in Baku, while Red Bull would have to outscore the papaya team by 34. Yet the only time that Mercedes have outscored McLaren in 2025 was in the Canadian GP in round 10

“George Russell won the Canadian GP from pole, while Andrea Kimi Antonelli took his first podium on a rare off-day for McLaren. Piastri winning the Dutch GP would have even seen McLaren outscore Mercedes without Antonelli’s two penalties, even though Norris retired.

“So, the 2025 constructors’ championship contest (in the loosest of terms) rolling on to the Singapore GP will likely depend on reliability problems plaguing McLaren, instead of what any rival can do in Baku. That is, unless Red Bull see a very different Yuki Tsunoda in Baku.

“McLaren winning the constructors’ title in Baku would mark the earliest stage of a season that a title has been won in F1 history. Red Bull set the current record by winning the 2023 title in round 16 of 22 (72.7%), but the Azerbaijan GP is round 17 of this year’s 24 (70.8%).”

Which driver will be the biggest disappointment at the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Ashley Hambly – Max Verstappen: “There’s been a lot of talk about Red Bull’s F1 car being suited to the Baku City Circuit due to the dominant performance of the RB21 in low downforce conditions at Monza with the Dutchman behind the wheel.

“However, there’s no guarantee that the car will enjoy the tight and twisting sections that the track has to offer.

“Paired with the fact that the Azerbaijan Grand Prix has been somewhat of a bogey track for Verstappen in the past, the Dutchman will need to put on another mesmerising performance to improve his current record of one win in seven previous attempts.

“A tangle with his former teammate Daniel Ricciardo saw both Red Bull’s retire from the race early in 2018, and who can forget Verstappen’s dramatic crash on the 1.4-mile long straight whilst leading the race in 2021?

“Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are well aware of the threat Verstappen poses, and won’t want to give him an inch in his attempts of replicating his feat in Italy two weekends ago.”

David Comerford – Lewis Hamilton: “This appears to be one of Lewis Hamilton‘s weaker circuits. He’s only won here once despite visiting four times in a dominant Mercedes car, and everyone remembers the mistake that cost him in 2021.

“He hasn’t even stood on the podium here in the ground-effect era, and he’s coming up against a driver in Charles Leclerc who is a bona fide Baku specialist. In fact, there’s arguably no driver better at this circuit.

“Leclerc has scored four straight poles here without ever having a dominant package. His 2021 and 2023 efforts were particularly impressive. Jolyon Palmer even thinks Leclerc could win in Baku [piece live at 2.30], and this looks like one of Ferrari’s best chances.

“When you consider that this is one of the longest laps of the year, the ingredients are there for a sobering qualifying gap between the two Ferraris.”