Yuki Tsunoda pinpoints the moment he had a ‘70%’ chance of joining Red Bull for 2025

Follow us on Google Discover

Yuki Tsunoda looks increasingly likely to spend a fifth consecutive season at the Red Bull junior team. They took up the option to extend his contract back in June.

This was shortly after they announced a two-year (or more specifically one-plus-one) contract extension for Sergio Perez. The matter thus seemed settled – Perez would stay alongside Max Verstappen, and Tsunoda would remain with RB.

But the Mexican’s form has been so poor for so long that Red Bull are considering sacking him. Perez is in breach of contract after falling more than 100 points behind Verstappen before the summer break.

Tsunoda beat Daniel Ricciardo, outscoring him by 22 points to 12 and beating him 12-6 in qualifying. That saw the Australian lose his seat after the Singapore Grand Prix.

Liam Lawson has replaced him, setting up a three-way fight for the spot alongside Verstappen. Tsunoda has always looked like the third choice.

Lawson has moved into pole position after his excellent return at the US GP. Despite starting from the back due to a penalty, he managed to score points, outracing his more experienced teammate.

When Yuki Tsunoda thought a move to Red Bull was on

Speaking to F1TV ahead of the Mexico City Grand Prix, Tsunoda revealed that he was bullish about joining Red Bull earlier this year. He rated his chances as high as 70% following the Saudi Arabian GP.

Tsunoda impressively reached Q3 that weekend, though he would fall to 15th in the race. Still, he was performing considerably better against Ricciardo than senior Red Bull figures expected.

However, seven months on, he spoke with a slight air of resignation. He feels it’s become a ‘pointless’ discussion point.

Asked how he’d rate his ‘current chances’ for the seat for 2025, he said: “It’s not about just the last race. It’s already happening from the first race between [me and] Daniel.

“To be honest, if I talk about chances, it’s just endless things. If you ask me about the second race this year, I was thinking 60, 70 [percent]. Things happened in the second half. It was a bit different. It’s pointless things to talk about.”

Yuki Tsunoda has already failed one Red Bull test amid Liam Lawson battle

Tsunoda tried to make an impression on Red Bull in Austin last time out when he battled Perez during the Sprint. After the 34-year-old got ahead, he looked to re-pass at turn one with the aid of DRS but locked up.

Sky Sports F1 commentator David Croft suspects Christian Horner wasn’t impressed. Tsunoda may be starting to think he’s fighting a losing battle, overlooked despite getting the better of eight-time race-winner Ricciardo.

One journalist suggested Red Bull could finally give Tsunoda a chance if he maintained a 100% record against Lawson. Optically, they could no longer deny at him that point.

But he’s already failed to meet that objective, even if he was always unlikely to do so. Tsunoda has been strongly linked with Aston Martin, who will link up his backers Honda in 2026, and may well be exploring his exit routes.