What Red Bull expected to happen if Daniel Ricciardo replaced Sergio Perez in summer break

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Immediately after the Belgian Grand Prix, it looked as if Daniel Ricciardo was set for a return to Red Bull. Sergio Perez had turned in an underwhelming performance in a race that appeared decisive for his future.

On Saturday, Perez had offered cause for optimism by qualifying third – his best showing since the Chinese Grand Prix in April. That became second thanks to Max Verstappen’s 10-place engine penalty.

This was exactly what Red Bull needed in the face of the Dutchman’s demotion. Perez was in a position to limit the damage in the constructors’ championship.

But in the end, he slipped back to a disappointing eighth, though he inherited seventh when initial race-winner George Russell was disqualified. Red Bull subsequently told Verstappen he’d have a new teammate for his home race at Zandvoort.

A social media post showed the world champion leaving the circuit with Ricciardo by helicopter. Verstappen was later told the video wasn’t the ‘brightest move’ amid the speculation around Perez.

But if Christian Horner and co. were set on making a change, they performed a u-turn before an all-important meeting on the following Monday. Perez will now be given another run of races to win back the team’s faith.

Red Bull expected Daniel Ricciardo to struggle just as much as Sergio Perez

This, of course, means Ricciardo will remain with junior team RB for the time being. His biggest concern right now should be the possibility that he loses that seat to Liam Lawson.

The Australian is a veteran of more than 250 Grands Prix and seven of his eight career wins came during his first spell at Red Bull between 2014 and 2018. But his 2024 campaign has been marked by inconsistency.

Ricciardo has only finished in the points in three out of 14 GPs so far and trails Yuki Tsunoda by 10 in the standings. He’s also 9-5 down in the qualifying head-to-head.

According to German publication Auto Motor und Sport, Red Bull came to the view that ‘everyone would have the Perez problem’ if they didn’t fix the issues with their car. That means they didn’t anticipate an improvement from either Ricciardo or Lawson.

The expectation is that Perez will ‘return to his best’ when he can fully ‘trust the car’. Clearly, Horner wants to change the RB20 before he changes his line-up.

David Croft ‘hates’ what he has to say about Daniel Ricciardo

As part of those efforts, Red Bull could revert Perez to an earlier spec for the upcoming races. He started the year with four podiums in five, though the Milton Keynes outfit enjoyed a clear advantage over the field in that period.

Red Bull could axe Perez after Singapore if these drastic measures fail to yield an improvement. Thus, if Ricciardo can extract the maximum from his car in the next four races, he’ll be well-placed for a promotion.

Such a move is bound to be divisive. For instance, David Croft is unsure whether Ricciardo deserves a Red Bull seat, a question he ‘hates’ to ask given his admiration for the 35-year-old.