What Max Verstappen’s F1 retirement threat means for Liam Lawson at Red Bull

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Max Verstappen’s Formula 1 future is more uncertain than ever, which is bound to trigger questions about succession planning at Red Bull. Liam Lawson will be one of the drivers monitoring developments particularly closely.

Verstappen is seriously considering retiring at the end of 2026 because he is no longer enjoying the racing. With the current ruleset set to last until 2030, it’s difficult to see any major changes in the near future.

As rumours about a potential departure in December intensify, Verstappen says ‘life isn’t just Formula 1’. The Dutchman is likely to pursue other racing interests if he does quit the sport where he has won four world titles.

Liam Lawson will be the favourite to replace Max Verstappen if he decisively beats Arvid Lindblad

Red Bull almost exclusively hire from within. Since 2008, Sergio Perez is the only driver to join the Milton Keynes outfit without racing for the sister team first.

That means the team are likely to choose between Lawson and Arvid Lindblad to partner Isack Hadjar if Verstappen does walk away. The last time they lost a four-time champion in Sebastian Vettel, they promoted Daniil Kvyat.

The battle is difficult to call. Lindblad has made an impressive start as a rookie, scoring points on debut in Australia and reaching Q3 twice in his first three attempts.

The clearest indication yet that Max Verstappen could quit F1

Erik van Haren of De Telegraaf broke the story

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Helmut Marko viewed Lindblad as the ‘successor’ to Verstappen, but he is no longer involved in the setup.

Shortly after he was dropped last spring, it was said that Lawson’s chances of returning to Red Bull were ‘very slim’. But the regime has changed since, with the New Zealander’s former boss Laurent Mekies taking over from Christian Horner and Marko bowing out.

There will no doubt be a reluctance in some quarters to re-sign Lawson given that his first stint at the team was a failure. But if he decisively beats Lindblad this year, it will be difficult to overlook him: he may offer Red Bull the blend of potential and experience that they require.

Perhaps the narrative will take hold that he wasn’t given a sufficient chance the first time and deserves another crack (in the knowledge that Lindblad will likely be ready by 2028 regardless).

‘We weren’t super fast’ – Liam Lawson’s reaction to surprise P9 in Japan

Lawson’s points finish in Japan won’t have escaped Red Bull’s notice, even if he acknowledges that the safety car caused by Oliver Bearman’s crash helped him out.

Lawson, who qualified a disappointing 14th, praised his team for actively improving the car during the race. He held off Haas driver Esteban Ocon by just over a second.

“Very positive,” he told Racing Bulls’ Instagram account. “To be honest, we weren’t super fast. We had a difficult start to the race, but we got a good timed safety car, which put us in the points. We stayed there until the end of the race, so big credit to the team.

“We were very active today on trying to improve in the balance of the car because we weren’t very happy at the start. In the end, it’s put us in a good position to stay in P9.”

Heading into the break, Lawson is 10th in the championship, remarkably just two points behind Verstappen.