Tom Clarkson ‘convinced’ Liam Lawson will replace Sergio Perez for 2025 on one condition

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At the start of September, Liam Lawson wasn’t on the Formula 1 grid at all. By March, he could be partnering world champion Max Verstappen.

Red Bull have been responsible for one of the most remarkable driver market sagas in F1’s recent history. Sergio Perez signed a new deal in June, but his immediate future was in doubt by July.

Perez breached the terms of his contract, which was supposed to guarantee a seat in 2025 and open an option for 2026, by falling more than 100 points behind Max Verstappen before the summer break. But Red Bull didn’t feel Daniel Ricciardo had done enough to replace him.

When it became clear that Ricciardo was no longer the driver he once was, there was little incentive to keep him at the junior team. Hence the promotion of Lawson for the final six events.

The New Zealander was effectively given six races to audition for Perez’s drive. Of course, the decision would also be contingent on the Mexican’s performances before Abu Dhabi.

Lawson has already titled the scales in his favour. He finished ninth on his return at the US Grand Prix despite starting 19th, while Perez was only seventh.

Liam Lawson seems nailed on for Red Bull seat if he repeats US Grand Prix performance

There are still five rounds to go in 2024, including two Sprint weekends. But if Lawson maintains the level he showed in Austin, he looks almost guaranteed to take over from Perez.

Indeed, the 34-year-old is running out of time to make a breakthrough. Since his last podium in China, he’s scored a measly 64 points in 14 races.

Verstappen has finished in the top three eight times in that period, including a third place at the Circuit of the Americas. Perez lamented his lack of upgrades relative to Verstappen but Helmut Marko said the difference between the cars was ‘marginal’.

F1 journalist and press conference host Tom Clarkson is ‘convinced’ that Lawson is Red Bull-bound on the evidence of Austin, while Alex Jacques says points finishes in Mexico and Brazil would put him in a ‘great position’. Yuki Tsunoda is also a contender but he worryingly lost out to Lawson in Texas.

“If Lawson keeps doing this, I am convinced he’ll be in the Red Bull next year,” Clarkson said on the F1 Nation podcast.

Jacques added: “Great start. Can he back it up? So intense to repeat that level of performance in a triple-header. If he can score points in the triple-header, he’s in a great position.”

Why Drive to Survive will have a ‘field day’ with Liam Lawson

Lawson angered the most experienced driver on the F1 grid on his comeback. Fernando Alonso, who will take part in his 400th Grand Prix in Mexico, was unhappy with his driving in the Sprint race.

Alonso confronted Lawson in parc ferme after calling him an ‘idiot’ on the radio. He vowed to exact revenge and did so in qualifying by slowing down the 22-year-old on an out-lap.

1996 world champion Damon Hill was disappointed with Alonso, who’s ‘bigger than that’. Lawson felt he did nothing wrong, and the stewards agreed.

BBC pundit Marc Priestley says Drive to Survive will have a ‘field day’ after the tense exchanges. It’s actually the kind of dramatic storyline their producers will relish.