The F1 paddock is asking one question about Yuki Tsunoda’s Red Bull future as 2026 decision looms

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It has been widely reported that Yuki Tsunoda will discover his fate for the 2026 Formula 1 season on Tuesday.

Red Bull are set to decide on Max Verstappen’s teammate and Racing Bulls’ line-up for next year, with Tsunoda facing immense pressure to keep his seat.

The Japanese driver has desperately struggled in the second RB21 since replacing Liam Lawson at Suzuka. He has scored just 30 points since his promotion, while Verstappen is in the hunt for the 2025 title in the same car.

The Qatar GP was arguably his best weekend for Red Bull, as Tsunoda outqualified Verstappen for the first time and finished P5 in the Sprint. However, this performance looks to have come too late.

A ‘high-level’ Red Bull meeting has decided Tsunoda’s future, with Red Bull set to promote Isack Hadjar and Racing Bulls will sign Arvid Lindblad to partner with Lawson. This would leave the Japanese star off the grid, which has raised one question in the F1 paddock.

The F1 paddock is asking if Yuki Tsunoda could be part of Honda’s negotiations with Red Bull for TPC tests in 2026

Journalist Ronald Vording was speaking via Motorsport.com Nederland in the paddock after the Qatar GP. With Red Bull’s decision on 2026 looming, he discussed how the paddock is asking if Honda’s negotiations with the team over TPC tests next year could save Tsunoda.

Red Bull will introduce their in-house engine in 2026, but they still need Honda engines for TPC tests. With the FIA putting no price limit on such engines, many are wondering if the Japanese giants could put together a deal to keep Tsunoda on the grid.

Vording said: “An interesting development is that Red Bull is in talks with Honda about the TPC test. These are test days with cars that are at least two years old. Red Bull will of course be driving with its own engines, but for that TPC test, they still need Honda engines.

“Well, the FIA has come up with a rule for teams that change engines. The old manufacturer is obliged to supply engines for that TPC test, only there is no price limit, so Honda can ask whatever it wants.

“It’s not a huge problem for Red Bull, because that doesn’t fall under the budget cap. But anyway, those negotiations are still ongoing, because of course no one wants to pay top dollar.

“And the question that arises in the paddock is, yes, could Yuki Tsunoda possibly play a role in such a deal? That maybe something would be deducted from that receipt in exchange for doing something for Yuki Tsunoda. Well, that’s a question that’s still up in the air, and we’ll hear the answer on Tuesday.”

READ MORE: Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda’s life outside F1 from height to parents

Honda are doing everything they can to keep Yuki Tsunoda in Formula 1

Having Honda by his side could be Tsunoda’s final bargaining chip in the Formula 1 driver market as he desperately tries to stay on the grid.

Lawson cannot compete with Tsunoda’s backing from Honda, which could give him an advantage in negotiations. The manufacturer could stay at Red Bull as a personal sponsor in 2026, giving their driver another possible boost.

Honda hope to ‘tip the balance’ for Tsunoda to keep him in Formula 1 in 2026. However, despite their best efforts, it looks to be too late as Red Bull and Racing Bulls’ line-ups seem just to be waiting for confirmation, and the 25-year-old is not in either of them.

The Japanese driver faces a bleak reality, with all seats filled for 2026. Unless he can find a reserve role somewhere, his future likely lies outside of F1.