Yuki Tsunoda’s F1 future could now ‘depend’ on one outside factor Liam Lawson can’t compete with

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There are still four available seats on the Formula 1 grid in 2026, but the most hotly-contested battle is set to play out between Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson.

Red Bull have to decide what to do with three of their seats next season, with only Max Verstappen confirmed for 2026.

Two of their three positions appear to be almost set, although no official confirmation has arrived.

Isack Hadjar looks set to be Verstappen’s teammate next year after a very impressive debut campaign.

Racing Bulls could be the only team to introduce a rookie to the grid in 2026, with Arvid Lindblad likely to be a Formula 1 driver after a decent but unspectacular F2 career.

That means with only one seat left, it looks set to be a head-to-head contest between Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda to partner the British teenager.

Lawson currently sits above Tsunoda in the drivers’ championship, and finished directly ahead of his Red Bull rival when he achieved his best result of the season in Azerbaijan.

However, Red Bull are insisting no decision has been made on Tsunoda, and the 25-year-old might have an advantage over Lawson that he simply can’t compete with.

READ MORE: Who is Racing Bulls F1 driver Liam Lawson? Everything you need to know

Yuki Tsunoda’s Honda connection could give him the upper hand in 2026 Red Bull decision

A report from Motorsport has shared more details about the decision-making process going on at Red Bull.

They believe that Hadjar is ‘leading the race’ to replace Tsunoda, and Lindblad is in a ‘good position’ to join Racing Bulls.

However, while Red Bull are giving themselves more time to decide, they’re also waiting to see what role Honda might play in Tsunoda’s future.

Honda paid Red Bull a significant fee when Tsunoda was first promoted into Lawson’s seat at the Japanese Grand Prix.

The report states that a decision on Tsunoda or Lawson ‘could also depend in part on whether Honda is willing to play any role as a personal sponsor or not’ which leaves the driver from New Zealand waiting for a call to be made that’s ultimately out of his hands.

Aston Martin named Jak Crawford as their reserve driver for 2026, suggesting Honda weren’t desperate to bring Tsunoda with them to their new team.

However, there’s one more reason why Honda’s association with Red Bull gives Tsunoda the upper hand over Lawson.

READ MORE: Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda’s life outside F1 from height to parents

Red Bull’s testing program with Honda benefits Yuki Tsunoda over Liam Lawson

Testing plays a much smaller role in Formula 1 than it used to, and drivers are only allowed a limited number of outings and miles away from the sport’s official pre-season events.

Even though Red Bull will be using their own in-house power units from 2026 onwards, all of their test cars will still run with Honda engines.

Journalist Erik van Haren was speaking on De Telegraaf’s F1 Podcast about the topic, and he explained: “The funny thing about Tsunoda is that he also has the advantage of Honda’s support.

“And then you say: ‘Yes, next year Honda will be driving with Aston Martin and will no longer work with Red Bull.’ That’s right.

“But of course, you’ll still be testing in old cars. And what kind of engine do you need? A Honda.

“So there’s still a kind of collaboration and also a financial collaboration. So that could still play a role at the bottom line.”

There is very little to choose between Lawson and Tsunoda in terms of their speed and their suitability to be Verstappen’s teammate, which is ultimately the main purpose of the Racing Bulls team.

However, if Tsunoda can count on Honda’s support for one more year, it might be what clinches him the final seat on the grid over his former teammate.