Red Bull have now made a surprise decision on Yuki Tsunoda’s ‘most likely scenario’ for 2026 F1 seat

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One driver who might have been less excited about Racing Bulls driver Isack Hadjar’s incredible podium at the Dutch Grand Prix was Yuki Tsunoda.

Yuki Tsunoda returned to the points for the first time since the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix with a much-needed P9 finish.

Red Bull were celebrating on the podium with Max Verstappen, who finished behind Oscar Piastri at his home race.

But they were also enjoying Isack Hadjar earning his first Formula 1 podium after putting together the perfect weekend for Racing Bulls.

Tsunoda reacted to Hadjar’s achievement after the race, and the two have a good relationship after their brief stint as teammates at the start of the year.

However, Hadjar is being lined up as Tsunoda’s potential Red Bull replacement, putting further pressure on the 25-year-old.

Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies and chief advisor Helmut Marko have dismissed suggestions that a decision has already been made on their 2026 driver line-ups.

It’s now emerged that a ‘most likely scenario’ has been drawn up by the team, which leaves Tsunoda in an unexpected position.

READ MORE: Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda’s life outside F1 from height to parents

Yuki Tsunoda’s ‘most likely scenario’ is returning to Racing Bulls in 2026

A report from Motorsport Italia has shared more details about Tsunoda’s F1 future.

One name that continues to come up in conversations about Red Bull’s driver line-ups is Arvid Lindblad.

Lindblad has the required superlicense points to race in Formula 1 next year despite only just turning 18.

Marko’s goal is for Lindblad to be racing in F1 next season, meaning one of their current drivers is going to miss out.

Verstappen has now committed his future to Red Bull for one more year, and Hadjar is all but guaranteed to be racing for one of their teams in 2026.

That leaves Tsunoda and Liam Lawson in a tricky position, but it’s now believed that the ‘most likely scenario’ is that the Japanese driver returns to Racing Bulls next year.

They suggest that ‘Tsunoda himself could make way for Lindblad’ meaning that Lawson isn’t necessarily the driver who is going to miss out.

However, it would be a fascinating twist in the F1 driver market if Tsunoda returned to his old team like several Red Bull drivers have done before him.

READ MORE: All you need to know about Red Bull Racing from engine to Ford links

Should Yuki Tsunoda consider a return to Racing Bulls if he loses his Red Bull seat?

At this stage, only three drivers have ever been demoted from Red Bull to their sister team.

Daniil Kvyat was replaced by Verstappen in 2016, and although he eventually lost his race seat during the 2017 season, he was brought back for two more years before going on to race in other series.

Pierre Gasly spent one full season at Toro Rosso in 2018 after replacing Kvyat before being promoted alongside Verstappen the following year.

While that didn’t go to plan, with Alex Albon taking his seat before the end of the campaign, he did enough at AlphaTauri to convince Alpine to sign him.

Not only that, but Gasly won the 2020 Italian Grand Prix, which is still the last time the Faenza-based outfit have won a race.

Time will tell whether Lawson has a long-term future in Formula 1 after being dropped just two races into his Red Bull career.

It would be even more frustrating if Racing Bulls let him go just to make room for Tsunoda to return in 2026.