Red Bull bosses have already chosen the 2026 Racing Bulls line-up ‘behind closed doors’

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Isack Hadjar is almost universally expected to join Red Bull for the 2026 season after a dazzling rookie season at Racing Bulls. His seat, in turn, will go to another Formula 2 graduate in Arvid Lindblad.

With Max Verstappen re-committing to Red Bull during the summer, that leaves Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson battling for the final spot in the roster. Tsunoda and Lawson, teammates at the end of last season, have both partnered the world champion this year.

Lindblad’s Racing Bulls move has become an ‘open secret’, according to Auto Motor und Sport, and the same is true of Hadjar’s impending Racing Bulls switch.

Tsunoda is driving with ‘desperation’, while Lawson conjured all of his fighting spirit to lead a train of cars in the fight for P7 at last weekend’s Sao Paulo GP. Far from assured of a place on next year’s grid, these are two drivers scrapping for their careers.

Red Bull have already decided to pair Liam Lawson with Arvid Lindblad

However, AMuS believe that Red Bull have already taken a decision ‘behind closed doors’. Tsunoda will be dropped, with Lawson staying on next to Lindblad.

The public message is that Red Bull won’t make a decision until the end of the season – a deadline that has been pushed back multiple times.

In reality, though, Red Bull fear Tsunoda will lose motivation if they tell him he’s losing his seat. Given that they’re fighting for second place in the constructors’, they can’t afford that to happen.

They know they can rely on Verstappen’s contributions, so it could be Tsunoda’s ‘bonus’ points that make the difference. The Japanese driver has only scored 25 points in his 21 races, which leaves him 17th in the championship.

The comments that gave Yuki Tsunoda false hope of staying in F1

Laurent Mekies considers Tsunoda a ‘friend’, so he will find it very difficult to let him go. But Mekies can’t let that sentiment govern his decision-making.

Christian Horner repeatedly passed up Tsunoda for a promotion, and in some respects, he got the seat by default when Lawson was seen to have imploded. Having failed to fully convince in either the Racing Bulls or the Red Bull cockpit, his position feels untenable.

Racing Bulls boss Alan Permane has stressed the importance of ‘experience’, which appeared to give Tsunoda some hope. He has started 108 races, compared to 32 for Lawson.

But Permane added that speed always comes first, and Lawson has arguably shown more this season – albeit in a more user-friendly car. With no seats available elsewhere, Tsunoda may not be back on the grid until 2027, if at all.