Lewis Hamilton now faces the ‘threat’ of a Baku F1 first hurting Ferrari in Azerbaijan Grand Prix

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Lewis Hamilton heads to the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku this weekend still seeking his first podium finish as a Ferrari driver and the Scuderia’s first win this year.

The Maranello squad remain the only one of F1’s big four teams without a Grand Prix win in 2025, ahead of the 17th of this year’s scheduled 24 rounds. McLaren could win the 2025 F1 constructors’ title in Baku after their 12 wins, while Red Bull boast three and Mercedes one.

McLaren must outscore Ferrari by nine points, plus avoid being outscored by Mercedes and Red Bull by 12 and 34 points each, to win the title during the Azerbaijan GP on Sunday. The Scuderia are their closest rivals in the F1 constructors’ standings, yet are 337 points behind.

Ferrari racers Charles Leclerc and Hamilton also only rank fifth and sixth in the 2025 drivers’ standings ahead of the Azerbaijan GP, with deficits of 161 and 207 points to Oscar Piastri of McLaren. Leclerc has had all five of Ferrari’s podiums, while Hamilton’s best finishes are P4.

Ferrari’s tyre cooling concerns around Baku could derail Lewis Hamilton’s Azerbaijan GP

Leclerc believes Ferrari could win the Azerbaijan GP, with the Monegasque marking Baku as one of the Scuderia’s three final chances to win a Grand Prix in the 2025 F1 season. He also holds out hope for the pride of Italy being competitive in Singapore and Las Vegas this year.

READ MORE: Everything you need to know about the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku

But while Motorsport.com claims that Ferrari’s simulations also suggest the Baku City Circuit may suit their car, it adds that Hamilton and Leclerc are at ‘threat’ of ‘excessive’ tyre cooling in the Azerbaijan GP. Ferrari’s cooling problems will also deepen if rain affects Sunday’s race.

The Maranello natives have used the data they collected as Leclerc secured P4 in the Italian Grand Prix and Hamilton finished P6 at Monza last time out to prepare a baseline set-up for Baku’s streets. But Pirelli has selected the C6 compound soft tyres for the first time in Baku.

Pirelli has gone one step softer with its tyre compounds compared to last year, when Leclerc finished second in the 2024 Azerbaijan GP to Piastri. The Italian manufacturer has chosen its C4, C5 and C6 tyres in 2025 due to the low grip from the asphalt, plus low abrasion levels.

Additionally, Pirelli has noticed drops of nearly 30°C in tyre temperatures in the past around Baku. Yet the softer compounds in 2025 may ruin Ferrari’s chances in the Azerbaijan GP, for which the Scuderia feel pole position might even be possible for the fifth season in a row.

What is the weather forecast for the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku?

While Motorsport.com notes a threat of rain over Saturday and Sunday at the Azerbaijan GP, the weather forecast for Baku this weekend varies drastically. Williams, for example, suggest in the team’s pre-event forecast that the greatest chance of precipitation is 7% on Saturday.

READ MORE: The most successful drivers at the Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix of all time

Williams are not expecting any rain to impact practice this Friday or Sunday’s Azerbaijan GP. The Grove crew forecast temperatures of around 25°C all weekend in Baku, which would be welcome news for Hamilton and Leclerc due to Ferrari’s greater cooling concerns in the wet.

But other forecasts ahead of the Azerbaijan GP cite a 22% chance of rain arriving before FP1 on Friday and a 30% chance of rain for FP3 on Saturday. The wind levels are also expected to increase around the time of qualifying, with high gusts possibly causing drivers problems.

Some forecasts for Saturday in Baku even cite an 80% probability of precipitation and a 16% probability of thunderstorms. But, likely to Ferrari’s relief ahead of the Azerbaijan GP, most weather forecasts for race day this Sunday do not indicate a high probability of rain in Baku.