James Allen predicts how Lewis Hamilton must perform against Charles Leclerc to avoid F1 retirement

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Lewis Hamilton is facing question marks around his future in Formula 1 after a torrid start to life at Ferrari.

The Brit endured arguably his worst season to date in 2025, failing to score a podium in a calendar year for the first time. Teammate Charles Leclerc scored all seven of Ferrari’s podiums and dominated Hamilton in qualifying and races.

The ground effect era proved to be difficult for the seven-time champion, winning just two races since the regulations changed in 2022. The new rules in 2026 could be the fresh start Hamilton needs.

Finish the sentence: Lewis Hamilton will finish the 2026 F1 season in ______

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But doubts about Hamilton have ‘exploded’ within Ferrari after his 2025 campaign. They expected much more than P7 in the standings when they signed him on a £52.77m-a-year contract.

The 41-year-old has struggled to adapt to his surroundings in Maranello, criticising the team’s operation and the car. In 2026, he will need to get closer to teammate Leclerc, or it could mark the end of his career.

James Allen thinks Lewis Hamilton will retire from F1 if he doesn’t score 80% of Charles Leclerc’s points in 2026

Hamilton’s contract expires in 2027, but the third year of his deal is not guaranteed, with rumours suggesting that he could retire from F1 at the end of 2026. Commentator James Allen thinks he will need to score within 80% of Leclerc’s points to avoid this.

Talking about Hamilton’s 2026 chances, former Aston Martin technical director Tom Fallows said on the James Allen on F1 podcast: “I think they’re going to be easier dynamically for the drivers to get on top of.

“And if it comes down to giving a driver a car which he can understand, is predictable to an extent, and he just needs to ring the best lap time out of it, then I still think Lewis Hamilton is right up there.

“And it will be interesting to see if he does get close to Charles on a few occasions, how would that work? Because I think he maybe has become a bit comfortable with being the number one driver at Ferrari now. And if Lewis really starts to show his form again, how would that affect Charles?

“So I think it could be pretty even. I’m going to boldly predict that Lewis will get a very similar number of points to Charles this season.”

Allen added: “Yeah, I think I’m slightly more on your side as well. I think I would go for about 80%. I think, and if he doesn’t, then I think this will certainly be his last year in Formula One, it might be anyway, but only time will tell.”

READ MORE: Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton’s life outside F1 from net worth to family

Ferrari are already preparing for Lewis Hamilton’s exit

If the new regulations favour Hamilton’s driving style, he will need to perform and score strong results. Furthermore, he will need to properly integrate himself into Ferrari’s operation after his struggles in 2025.

Leclerc has ‘rejected’ being Hamilton’s mentor at Ferrari as he is focused on his own efforts. He, too, is frustrated in Maranello and could call time on his spell with the team if they are uncompetitive in 2026.

If his teammate is to leave, Ferrari have already drawn up a four-driver shortlist of potential replacements. Haas’ Oliver Bearman is the obvious candidate, while Ferrari junior Rafael Camara and McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are also being considered.

The seven-time champion’s retirement from F1 may not spell the end of time in the sport, however. Hamilton could become a Ferrari ambassador if he steps out of their car at the end of 2026.