Guenther Steiner thinks Mercedes are making one crucial error in their pursuit of Max Verstappen from Red Bull

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The Formula 1 driver market is set to be determined by the behaviour of two teams over the next few weeks.

Red Bull and Mercedes are the highest profile teams in the paddock yet to confirm their driver line-ups for 2026.

Yuki Tsunoda is fighting to earn a contract extension alongside Max Verstappen at Red Bull.

The Japanese driver is underperforming compared to his teammate, and Christian Horner has lost his job amid one of the team’s most difficult periods in their recent history.

At Mercedes, both George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli are out of contract at the end of the season.

Mercedes’ interest in Verstappen is well documented and would lead to Toto Wolff having to drop one of his current line-up.

Guenther Steiner has had his say on the situation, and believes that Mercedes could be about to make a crucial mistake.

READ MORE: Red Bull driver Max Verstappen’s life outside F1 from net worth to girlfriend

Guenther Steiner tells Mercedes to drop Kimi Antonelli instead of George Russell for Max Verstappen

One of the assumptions that has been made is that Mercedes would retain Antonelli over Russell in the event that they manage to sign Verstappen for next season.

However, Steiner was asked in The Red Flags Podcast feature ‘Gas or Brake’ whether he thinks Verstappen will replace Russell at Mercedes next season.

He responded: “Brake. Max will not go anywhere next year. I didn’t say forever.

“I mean, how could they replace George with Max and leave Kimi Antonelli there if Mercedes wants to win a world championship?

“Kimi did one good race in Canada. The rest, how many good races did he have? Not many, exactly.

“So, you take George out, who is doing a good job, like him or not, he’s doing a good job, he won a race.

“He’s obviously a good leader there. I think they would need to take Kimi out to put Max in.

“I would understand that one at the moment. Say, hey, Kimi, let’s do a year at Alpine or Williams, wherever, build him up because he’s a good driver, but he needs the experience and being thrown in at that age in a car which actually could win races, and you don’t win.

“It is not good for your build-up, so I think that’s difficult.

“And I think Max, if he goes to Mercedes next year, how does he know that the Mercedes next year will be good?”

READ MORE: Mercedes driver George Russell’s life outside F1 from net worth to height

Guenther Steiner shares his theory about the delay in Mercedes offering George Russell a new contract

It was then put to Steiner that Russell still hasn’t signed a new contract, and why that might be the case.

There are suggestions that Mercedes and Russell have reached an impasse over the terms of a potential new deal.

Steiner explained: “I think they want to give George a one-year contract to have the possibility of having Max in 2027.

“And George obviously says, I don’t want a one-year contract, I want three years.

“Or George is playing about money, and Toto just wants to put the heat on him.

“I don’t know the inside, but there could be a lot of things why this is played out like this.

“I would think Max says in 2026, I’ll stay at Red Bull, see where everybody ends up, performance-wise. And then maybe make a change for 2027.”

It would make sense for Verstappen to wait until this time next season to work out his best option if he wants to leave Red Bull.

There are also a host of other drivers who will be out of contract next year, too, giving the four-time world champion more options to choose from.