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Mercedes reinforced their preliminary status as the favourite team to win the F1 titles in 2026 at the Barcelona shakedown test, but one rival also caught the paddock’s eye.
The Silver Arrows have long been seen as the expected favourite for the 2026 F1 season, as many have predicted Mercedes to have the best engine for the new regulations. The belief that the Brackley bunch could get back on top in 2026 only grew at the Barcelona test, too.
No team penned more laps of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya than Mercedes, as George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli completed a combined 502 last week. Russell also set the second-fastest overall lap time, although fuel loads and run plans make lap times irrelevant.
Juan Pablo Montoya has heard that Mercedes were sandbagging in Barcelona to the tune of three to four seconds a lap, too. The pre-season tests in Bahrain on February 11-13 and 18-20 should paint a clearer picture of Mercedes’ advantage ahead of the first race in Australia.
Barcelona shakedown complete ✅ Which team has surprised you the most? 👇
The F1 paddock sees McLaren as a genuine rival for Mercedes in 2026
But McLaren also impressed the F1 paddock, following their delayed start to the shakedown in Barcelona, with many teams placing them as Mercedes’ greatest threat. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, who was delayed by a fuel system issue on his first run, recorded just 291 laps.
READ MORE: Everything you need to know about F1’s 2026 engine and aero regulations
That is according to the owner of Formula Medicine, Riccardo Ceccarelli, who also has close ties with the F1 paddock. Ceccarelli understands after speaking to people from the paddock in Barcelona that many feel Red Bull and then Ferrari are playing catch-up entering the year.
Ceccarelli told Motorsport.com: “Those in the paddock believe that Mercedes and McLaren will ultimately emerge [as the two best teams in 2026]. Ferrari are seen as an outsider.
“There’s also anticipation for Red Bull, despite the uncertainties surrounding the power unit. The feeling is that at the top, little could change compared to last year.”
Lando Norris sees George Russell as the favourite for the 2026 F1 drivers’ title
George Russell topped the lap count at the Barcelona Shakedown 🔥
But is mileage everything at this stage? 🤔
McLaren elected to make the Barcelona shakedown the on-track debut of the MCL40, which they hope can win them a third consecutive constructors’ title in the first season of the 2026 F1 regulations. Norris will also bid to defend his first F1 drivers’ championship title this term.
But while the bargeboards on McLaren’s 2026 F1 car and the under-nose turning vanes on Norris and Piastri’s 2026 car in Barcelona stood out, Mercedes will boast a small advantage over their engine customer this year by knowing their new power unit’s systems inside out.
The Silver Arrows’ engineers are already thinking of ways to further increase their likely lead at the start of the 2026 season, as well. It is now said that Mercedes intend to dip below the minimum car weight before the first race to be able to add ballast to improve their balance.
Even Norris is calling Russell the “massive favourite” to win the 2026 F1 drivers’ title ahead of the season starting in Australia on March 6-8, too. Who wins the title will be determined by the development race, but Mercedes are believed to be starting with an early advantage.
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