F1 2024 season predictions: World champion, biggest underachiever, surprise star and more

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Max Verstappen and Red Bull produced the most dominant Formula 1 season ever in 2023 but the year ahead delivers a new horizon, so here are our predictions for 2024.

F1 is already set to make history when the lights go out at the Bahrain GP on March 2. All 10 of the teams have kept the same driver line-up from the final race of the previous season for the first time. So, there will also be no rookies entering the pinnacle of motorsport this year.

Last year saw McLaren’s Oscar Piastri emerge as Formula 1’s Rookie of the Year after a great campaign. The 22-year-old took 97 points to dominate Williams gem Logan Sargeant (1) and Nyck de Vries (0) during his short-stint for AlphaTauri. De Vries only contested 10 Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen produced F1’s most dominant season ever in 2023

Piastri also became the first rookie since Lewis Hamilton in 2007 to register multiple podium finishes in F1. He also won the Sprint at the Qatar GP from pole position, edging Verstappen at Lusail. The McLaren driver fended off the Red Bull star on Verstappen’s title-clinching day.

An incident with Esteban Ocon and Nico Hulkenberg saw Sergio Perez crash in the Sprint at the Qatar GP. It was the final nail in the Mexican’s hopes of beating Verstappen to the title in equal machinery. Perez would ultimately only earn 285 of Red Bull’s 860 points over 2023.

Verstappen obliterated the field to win his third-straight Formula 1 drivers’ championship in 2023. He took new records for the most wins in a season (19), the best win per cent (86.3%) and longest winning streak (10). Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz denied Red Bull a perfect 22/22 wins.

Sainz drove a brilliant defensive race to win the Singapore GP, fending off Mercedes’ George Russell and McLaren’s Lando Norris. Red Bull were surprisingly off the pace at Marina Bay as they did not find a set-up. Now, they will eye 100% in F1’s record-breaking 24-race season.

Formula 1 has scheduled a record-breaking 24-round season in 2024 with the returns of the Chinese GP and Emilia Romagna GP. China has not held an F1 race since 2019 due to Covid-19. So, with 2024 now underway, F1 Oversteer has predicted the Formula 1 season ahead…

2024 Formula 1 world champion – Max Verstappen

Well, it is almost impossible to predict anyone but Verstappen to win the Formula 1 drivers’ championship again in 2024. He dominated the grid like no driver had in the series’ history in 2023. Red Bull even also turned their attention to developing their 2024 car back in July.

Verstappen will likely expect a closer fight in 2024 after winning 19 of the 22 Grand Prix in 2023. He will also likely struggle to better his records set last year. But it will take a shock for Mercedes, Ferrari or a rival team to win as there were no major changes to the regulations.

McLaren often emerged as Red Bull’s nearest challenger towards the end of 2023. But they, like Ferrari and Mercedes, seldom got close to Red Bull in pure race pace. Verstappen often had an answer to beat Norris and Piastri, Charles Leclerc and Sainz or Russell and Hamilton.

2024 Formula 1 constructors’ champion – Red Bull

Such was Verstappen’s dominance in F1 in 2023 that he alone would have won Red Bull the constructors’ championship. The Dutchman earned 575 of Red Bull’s 860 points, 166 more than Mercedes pair Hamilton and Russell earned together to hand the Silver Arrows second.

Red Bull may need Perez to step up and score more in 2023 if Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or another rival gets their act together. But it is also almost impossible to predict any team but Red Bull to win the 2024 F1 constructors’ championship as they started on their car last July.

“With the limitation with the wind tunnel time that we have, we have to make our choices,” Red Bull team principal Christian Horner told Sky Sports in July 2023. “So, of course, we’re having to put a lot of focus into next year now to make sure that we don’t fall behind.”

2024 Formula 1 surprise star – Alex Albon

With no rookies on the Formula 1 grid in 2024, it is hard to predict an overachiever but Alex Albon might have chances to upset the apple cart with Williams. He shone during 2023 with a host of superb defensive drives to score 27 of Williams’ 28 points beside rookie Sargeant.

Albon particularly frustrated Ocon, Lance Stroll, Valtteri Bottas and Norris to claim P7 at the 2023 Canadian GP. The 27-year-old also thwarted Norris again to match his season-best P7 result at the Italian GP. Albon utilised the straight-line speed of the FW45 across both races.

If Williams find more downforce and bridge some of their deficit to the midfield, Albon will believe podiums are possible. The London-born Thai has so far only stood on a rostrum for the Tuscan GP and Bahrain GP in 2020. He took both with Red Bull after third-place drives.

2024 Formula 1 biggest underachiever – Sergio Perez

Perez goes into 2024 fighting for his future with Red Bull as one of the 15 Formula 1 drivers out of contract after the season. Horner has stated that the seat beside Verstappen is his to lose. But the 33-year-old must carry his late-season resurgence in 2023 into the New Year.

The Guadalajara native started last year strongly with two wins in the first four races to be a title contender. But Verstappen beating Perez to win the Miami GP derailed his season and he struggled to recover. Perez only got on the podium at five of the following 17 Grand Prix.

Another season like 2023 might cost Perez his seat at Red Bull if Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren et al bridge their deficit. The Mexican was often woeful in qualifying, failing to make Q3 nine times and exiting after Q1 three times. He also retired from two Grand Prix due to damage.

Perez crashed into Albon at the Singapore GP and Kevin Magnussen at the Japanese GP in successive weekends. He T-boned the Williams driver with a naïve move at Marina Bay for P8 and repeated the same mistake on the Haas driver at Suzuka at the Hairpin of Turn 11.

Bold 2024 Formula 1 season prediction

While Red Bull won 21 of the 22 Grand Prix in 2023, F1 Oversteer predicts their win tally will shrink in 2024. We also predict Norris to not only win his first Grand Prix in 2024 but that he wins more races than Perez. The 24-year-old’s best result in F1 so far is P2 at seven rounds.

Norris claimed the silver medal for six races in 2023, plus a P3 finish at the Qatar GP. He may have even rivalled Verstappen for the win at the Qatar GP had the Briton not exceeded track limits in Q3 and start from P10. Seeing Piastri win the Sprint at Lusail will only fuel his quest.

A Formula 1 race win is the only award missing from Norris’ Grand Prix record in 104 entries so far. He has made the podium 13 times, set the fastest lap six times and taken pole once. It is surely now time for Norris to win his first race after McLaren’s strong second half of 2023.