Dan Fallows states why Lewis Hamilton might make ‘early’ F1 exit call and names ‘obvious’ replacement

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Lewis Hamilton’s first qualifying session of 2026 at the Australian Grand Prix will tell fans everything they need to know about how competitive Ferrari are and whether or not the seven-time world champion still has a long-term future in Formula 1.

After a disappointing maiden campaign with the Scuderia, Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari have put all of their eggs in the 2026 basket.

Team principal Fred Vasseur admitted that Ferrari gave up on last year’s car in April, arguably putting more pressure on his team to create a competitive car for the upcoming regulation changes.

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The ground-effect era never suited Hamilton, as he has only won two Grand Prix since 2022, and has been beaten by his teammates in the last two seasons in the championship.

Hamilton has been told why the ruleset change could benefit him, but if it doesn’t, then questions will immediately be asked about his immediate future.

It’s believed Hamilton has a contract until the end of 2027, but former Aston Martin technical chief Dan Fallows believes that he will announce his retirement ‘early’ to give the Scuderia a helping hand in replacing him.

READ MORE: Ferrari driver Lewis Hamilton’s life outside F1 from net worth to family

Lewis Hamilton predicted to make ‘early’ retirement call if he decides to quit Formula 1

Fallows was asked on the James Allen on F1 Podcast who might be the highest profile driver to leave the sport in 2026 and said: “I was going to go for Lewis Hamilton as being the sort of key to the driver market.

“It’s sort of easy to put him in the same bracket as Fernando Alonso in somebody who’s clearly still very, very capable, although he did struggle a bit last year.

“I think somebody who can definitely turn in the performances when he needs to. The question for me really is, has he got the same desire?

“Has he got the same will to carry on as long as he possibly can if he’s not in a 100% competitive car? Whereas Fernando is driving other cars, still very keen, he’s got his own karting circuit and so on.

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“I’m not sure Lewis is that committed to racing as a whole. I mean, that might be a horrible slight on the man. He’s probably extremely committed to Formula 1; there’s no doubt about that.

“But I don’t see him as somebody who would necessarily want to carry on just because he loves it. I think he wants to be competitive. I think he wants to be in a car that’s capable of getting in those race wins.

“So if he does retire, I think he’ll probably say it quite early on, give Ferrari a chance to bring in a new driver, and I think that will trigger a lot of moves.

“Ollie Bearman is an obvious person to take that place, but there may be others. And at the same time, if Ferrari doesn’t have a competitive car, does Charles Leclerc want to stay there? Does he want to maybe look at other options?”

READ MORE: All you need to know about Scuderia Ferrari from team principal to factory

Lewis Hamilton could be lined up for a non-racing role at Ferrari if he quits Formula 1

Hamilton will not have joined Ferrari if he didn’t think he had a chance to win a record eighth championship with the Scuderia.

The only other man to achieve that feat, Michael Schumacher, had to wait four seasons before adding to his championship tally after moving to Ferrari from Benetton, and Hamilton doesn’t have that amount of time on his side.

Not only that, but if Ferrari have got the fastest car in 2026, there’s very little evidence from the last 12 months that Hamilton will be able to beat Charles Leclerc in a head-to-head battle.

It’s been suggested that Hamilton could stay at Ferrari in a non-racing role if he decides to quit.

Although Hamilton isn’t as marketable as he used to be, having the 41-year-old as an ambassador or even as an advisor to whoever replaces him certainly wouldn’t be a bad thing.