Carlos Sainz hoping one F1 team ‘falls apart’ before he makes 2025 race seat decision

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Carlos Sainz has been a key player in the Formula 1 driver market ever since Ferrari secured the signing of Lewis Hamilton. Multiple teams have been waiting on him before confirming their line-ups.

Indeed, Haas driver Kevin Magnussen has described him as ‘the cork in the bottle’. When he confirms his next destination, there could be a succession of announcements.

With Mercedes of a mind to either promote academy driver Kimi Antonelli or sign Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez signing a contract extension at Red Bull, Sainz has been assessing midfield options. Up until recently, he looked set to join Williams.

Indeed, James Vowles was ready to unveil him at his home race in Spain last month. The F1 paddock was ‘certain’ that it was coming, but he hesitated at the last moment.

That’s because Alpine have made a late push to sign him. They’ve told him that they could be racing with Mercedes power units in 2026 after opening talks, and that could make them a more attractive proposition.

Williams already have a deal in place with the German manufacturer. But Sainz seems to see greater potential in the Alpine project.

Carlos Sainz hopes Red Bull ‘marriage’ with Max Verstappen crumbles

Speaking on the Formel Schmidt podcast, Auto Motor und Sport journalist Michael Schmidt claimed that Sainz had yet to give up on a move to Red Bull. He started his career at junior team Toro Rosso in 2015, having graduated from the academy.

Christian Horner’s reservations about the Spaniard weren’t necessarily sporting. Instead, he was wary that there would be tension between him and Verstappen, just as there was at the junior team nine years ago.

But if Verstappen was to leave, that problem would be removed. The world champion is under contract until the end of 2028 but he can leave if Helmut Marko is no longer in his post, and the executive director has promised that he’ll respect his wishes.

• READ MORE: Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz’s life outside F1 from full name, girlfriend and height

Schmidt says Sainz still has hope that Verstappen’s relationship with Red Bull could crumble, opening the door. But he’s also wary that he can’t keep waiting for an unlikely scenario to materialise.

“Carlos Sainz is of course still hoping that the Red Bull/Verstappen marriage will fall apart,” he said. “It’s also clear that he can’t wait that long because under certain circumstances, it never happens, and Verstappen is actually driving for Red Bull next year, maybe even the year after that. So it’s not an option for him to wait forever.”

Does Jos Verstappen spat with Christian Horner give Sainz hope?

Speaking before the Austrian GP, Verstappen appeared to tentatively confirm that he’d be racing for Red Bull next year. But Sky Sports F1 pundit Naomi Schiff wasn’t convinced by his demeanour, and colleague Martin Brundle refuses to believe that things are ‘sewn up’ as Mercedes continue to ‘hang around’.

Toto Wolff received encouragement last weekend as Verstappen’s father Jos clashed with Horner. The former F1 driver alleged that the Red Bull boss had blocked him from participating in the legends’ parade in Sebastian Vettel’s old car.

Horner denied this, but Verstappen senior was subsequently seen visiting the Mercedes facility in the paddock. It seems that the story isn’t dead yet, with the divisions clear for all to see.

Still, the expectation is that he stays put, which means Alpine will be the ‘new home’ for Sainz. Brundle has urged him to negotiate an exit clause in case a seat becomes available with Red Bull, or indeed another top team, in the near future.