Austrian Grand Prix predictions, including why Lando Norris must win and Max Verstappen’s nervous weekends continue

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Formula 1 enters the European swing off the back of a controversial end to the Canadian Grand Prix, with the Red Bull Ring in Spielberg playing host to the 11th round of the 2025 season.

The Austrian Grand Prix has seen its fair share of teammate controversies over the years, and both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will be keen to avoid a repeat of these after their clash in Canada.

Norris did the right thing in owning up instantly, but having cost McLaren lots of money in crash damage, he also may have cost himself even more in the title hunt.

Canada showed that McLaren’s advantage is not as assured as we think, with them likely to experience similar form as the season progresses and cars gain more upgrades.

Mercedes are still working to optimise its package, but George Russell’s win and Kimi Antonelli’s podium will be encouraging, while Max Verstappen is still riding close to a race ban at Red Bull’s home track.

With that in mind, F1 Oversteer has given their predictions on who they think will impress and disappoint at the Red Bull Ring.

Who will start from pole for the 2025 Austrian Grand Prix?

• Shay Rogers: Lando Norris

Lando Norris has a point to prove after his gutting retirement at the Canadian Grand Prix. Running into teammate Oscar Piastri wasn’t part of the script, but he appeared to move on from it quickly.

That will be a decisive factor at the Austrian Grand Prix, a track where he is also looking for revenge over Max Verstappen, after a late collision denied him a victory last year.

He secured his first Formula 1 podium at Spielberg, and McLaren typically go quite well there too. Their cars will be up there somewhere.

McLaren face a ‘terrifying’ problem with Norris and are unsure when to divert their attention to next year’s car. It’s a critical decision, and the longer they wait, the more it could harm them in the future.

Not having many corners usually means that qualifying is usually very close in Austria, but Norris has proven that he still has plenty of confidence in his car. It should be enough to claim pole position on Saturday.

Who will win the 2025 Austrian Grand Prix?

• Rory Mitchell: Lando Norris

Anything other than a win for Norris in Spielberg will not do. The best way he can bounce back from his silly mistake in Canada is by closing the points deficit to Piastri, and he must do so by addressing another weakness of his: qualifying.

In Saudi Arabia he hit the wall and missed out on a front row, in Japan he didn’t have the pace, China he made a mistake at the end of the lap, and in Canada he missed out on the top three.

Given that Norris almost won in Austria last year, on a track with just 10 corners, this should be an easy one to conquer and show the pace that made him the title favourite at the end of 2024.

READ MORE: Five unforgettable Austrian Grand Prix moments from Ferrari’s team orders to Rosberg vs Hamilton

Who will be the biggest surprise of the 2025 Austrian Grand Prix?

• Ben Evans: Gabriel Bortoleto

Ever since Sauber delivered their first major update of the season, they’ve been far more competitive and no longer sit at the bottom of the constructors’ championship.

Nico Hulkenberg has been the main beneficiary of that improvement, scoring points in Spain and Canada, but Gabriel Bortoleto hasn’t been far behind him.

Hulkenberg has been impressed with Bortoleto this season, and the Brazilian rookie’s performances in qualifying recently suggest that a first points finish of his F1 career is just around the corner. 

Who will be the biggest disappointment of the 2025 Austrian Grand Prix?

• Kyle Archer: Max Verstappen

The Austrian Grand Prix attracts thousands of Dutch fans, as they flock to the Styrian hills to watch their hero, Max Verstappen, compete for glory at Red Bull’s home race. But the 27-year-old’s followers are likely to go home disappointed in 2025.

Beyond Verstappen needing to stop a run of failing to get back-to-back Grand Prix podiums since the 2024 United States Grand Prix 16 rounds ago, the Red Bull Ring might not suit the RB21 enough to combat the threat of McLaren and even Mercedes at the 2025 Austrian GP.

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner fears his team’s own track could expose the RB21’s ‘weakness’ of medium-speed corners in the middle sector. He even expects McLaren will be ‘stronger’ than Red Bull if the track temperature rises with early forecasts of more than 50°F.

High temperatures may also not be an issue for the Silver Arrows as Russell used Mercedes’ rear suspension upgrade to beat Verstappen to win the 2025 Canadian GP. If the success of their update continues at the Red Bull Ring, then Verstappen may face a disappointing day.

Verstappen will also hope to avoid any incidents over the Austrian GP weekend so as not to get a race ban for the British Grand Prix at Silverstone on July 4-6. Red Bull head home with Verstappen one penalty point from a race ban, but will lose two of his 11 points on June 30.