2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix predictions as experts choose between Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris for victory

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The Hungarian Grand Prix is the final race before the traditional Formula 1 summer break, and it is an important moment in the title battle between Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

Piastri extended his championship lead to 16 points over Norris after his win in Belgium, despite the Briton starting from pole. Alex Brundle noted how Piastri coaxed errors out of Norris, including forcing him to push despite McLaren giving him a favourable strategy.

The pair arrive at the Hungaroring 12 months on from their team orders spat, when Norris’ engineer had to plead with him to hand first place back to Piastri after a strategic error.

It led to muted celebrations for the Australian, even though it was his first win in F1, but it perhaps foreshadowed the title battle between the pair. With that in mind, F1 Oversteer has predicted who they think will come out on top in Hungary.

Who will start from pole for the 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix?

• Rory Mitchell – Lando Norris

It may have been part of Oscar Piastri’s master plan to qualify in second behind Lando Norris in Belgium after seeing the Red Bull of Max Verstappen swoop past him at the start of the Sprint race.

But Norris cut out all of the mistakes he’d been making in practice and Sprint qualifying to get ahead of his rival. After he qualified on pole in Hungary last year, Norris will likely put in a repeat performance.

Norris is now 7-6 in the qualifying battle, with Karun Chandhok believing it to be a sign that the title battle will go down to the wire in Abu Dhabi. Qualifying is everything in Hungary, and it would be a big boost for Norris heading into the summer break if he repeats his victory from last year.

Who will win the 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix?

• Ashley Hambly – Lando Norris

After having to concede victory to Oscar Piastri at last year’s edition of the Hungarian Grand Prix, Lando Norris will be looking to get his own back on his McLaren counterpart and close the gap at the top of the standings heading into the summer break.

Norris noted Piastri’s ‘perfect’ performance in Belgium after the Aussie extended his championship lead to 16 points, something that could get out of hand if the Brit doesn’t start chipping away at it at the earliest opportunity.

Max Verstappen could prove to be a thorn in the side of the Woking-based team if he manages to snatch pole position in qualifying on Saturday.

The limited overtaking opportunities at the Hungaroring could play into the four-time world champion’s hands if he does find himself in the lead of the race at turn one on Sunday.

Who will finish on the podium for the 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix?

• Shay Rogers: Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri.          

It may be a very unusual time to predict that Hamilton will join the two dominant McLaren drivers on the podium, however, the right signs are there.

Hamilton can finally unleash an F1 superpower after a change to his Brembo brake pads gave him more confidence at the Belgian Grand Prix.

Of the four drivers that started from the pit lane, he was the only one who finished higher than 14th (seventh) and was super impressive under braking in the wet. It could help recover some confidence.
It’s hard to see Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri dropping off the rostrum, given their recent form. They’ll want to head into the summer break with as much momentum as possible.

Piastri did one ‘superb’ thing at Spa, and clinched victory with a vital move on the first green lap of the race. He will want a repeat of that at the Hungaroring, but qualifying will be vital for them.

Who will be the biggest surprise at the 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix?

• Ben Evans – Liam Lawson

After a very tricky start to the season, Liam Lawson is finally displaying the form that convinced Red Bull he was the best candidate to replace Sergio Perez.

Lawson earned a new nickname in Monaco, and recorded his best-ever result at the recent Austrian Grand Prix before going on to score four points at Spa.

He’s now level on points with Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz, and Racing Bulls’ car looks capable of competing with Williams to be the best of the rest.

Isack Hadjar has only scored points in one of the last four race weekends, and Lawson could capitalise on his recent form to secure another strong result.

Who will be the biggest disappointment of the 2025 Hungarian Grand Prix?

• Kyle Archer – Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton loves the Hungaroring, having won the Hungarian Grand Prix a record eight times to date. But while the Briton might have four more wins on the outskirts of Budapest than any driver in F1 history, his ninth Hungarian GP win may have to wait for at least 2026.

The 40-year-old will likely also have to continue waiting until at least after the 2025 summer break to score his first podium with the Scuderia. Hamilton is now 13 rounds into his Ferrari career without a Grand Prix rostrum and the issues he met at Spa can see his wait continue.

After he only qualified P16 in the Ardennes forest, Hamilton’s Belgian GP was thwarted by having to lift and coast. It has been a consistent problem for the Maranello outfit this year, and meant the Stevenage-born star’s charge halted in P7 behind Williams rival Alex Albon.

The seven-time champion is also adapting to the new set-up for his rear brakes, which saw Hamilton spin and exit Sprint Qualifying early at Spa in just P18. So, while the Hungaroring might suit the Ferrari SF-25 in its high-downforce set-up, Hamilton might not leave happy.