£1.5m-a-year F1 driver told ‘forces outside of his control’ will see him lose his race seat next season

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Although there hasn’t been any official movement in the Formula 1 driver market ahead of next season, things are starting to move behind the scenes.

The most important cog in the F1 driver market was Max Verstappen, and his decision to stay at Red Bull has meant that several more pieces in the puzzle should quickly fall into place.

George Russell is closing in on a new Mercedes contract, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli is set to stay alongside him.

Formula 1’s newest team, Cadillac, still need to decide which drivers will lead them into 2026.

Sergio Perez looks likely to be one of Cadillac’s drivers, and F1 Oversteer understands Mick Schumacher is very confident of playing a role in the new Cadillac project.

That leaves the second Alpine seat next to Pierre Gasly, and the three Red Bull-backed roles alongside Verstappen to determine before the 2026 grid is complete.

Journalist and Dutch F1 commentator Nelson Valkenburg believes that one of the Red Bull trio looks set to miss out ahead of next season.

READ MORE: Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda’s life outside F1 from height to parents

‘Forces outside of his control’ will see Yuki Tsunoda lose his Formula 1 seat next season

Valkenburg was speaking on the Nailing The Apex Podcast and asked about Yuki Tsunoda’s Formula 1 future.

He said about the £1.5m-a-year driver: “I think for the short-term, I think Yuki is very happy that Mekies is there.

“I think he can help him get a point across about what he needs from the car. Although I do think that he won’t be with the team next year.

“If I’m very honest, I think forces outside of his control will make sure that Arvid Lindblad moves into the Racing Bulls stable, and probably, Hadjar will be moved up.

“This team is a different team under Mekies, but Mekies does feel like the manager, and not the owner.

“And I don’t think he has the power to decide who is in that car. And let’s not forget that Mekies is also a huge fan of Hadjar.

“With the Honda money, backing and support, I just find it extremely difficult to see Yuki staying, and it’s almost the thing we were most afraid of when he was announced to take that seat from Lawson, that it could be a career trajectory killer.

“It seems to have proved to be that, but he has two races to prove us wrong.

“Red Bull’s adamant that he’s a lot closer [to Verstappen] than people think, given car specifications.”

READ MORE: All you need to know about Red Bull Racing from engine to Ford links

Yuki Tsunoda is showing signs of progress at Red Bull despite pointless run

Tsunoda’s final points-scoring finish was at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix when he squeezed into 10th.

However, that was seven race weekends ago, and only Alpine driver Franco Colapinto is on a longer run of not scoring a point.

There have been signs that Tsunoda is starting to close the gap to Verstappen after a tricky start.

Red Bull discovered an ‘extremely difficult’ Tsunoda issue at the Hungarian Grand Prix as they failed to tell him about changes they made to his steering wheel set-up.

It was also the closest Tsunoda has gotten to matching Verstappen’s pace, but unfortunately, it was at Red Bull’s worst track of the season.

If Tsunoda can start scoring points, then it would make sense for Red Bull to retain him for one more year.

However, the emergence of Arvid Lindblad in Formula 2 and the loss of Honda’s backing could spell the end of Tsunoda at Red Bull.