Toto Wolff saw something Ferrari didn’t when Lewis Hamilton left Mercedes

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Ferrari didn’t publicly disclose the length of Lewis Hamilton’s contract when they signed him from Mercedes. They simply said it was a multi-year deal.

But the consensus among F1 insiders is that Hamilton signed for three years at Ferrari. After the events of his first season, the team may privately regret giving him a lengthy deal.

It was statistically Hamilton’s worst season, both in terms of his own results and the gap to his teammate. Based on his comments to the media, his confidence is lower than ever, too.

Hamilton is the most successful driver in F1 history, but Ferrari have seen exceedingly few glimpses of his best form. Toto Wolff may have seen some of these problems coming.

Toto Wolff was right to be concerned about Lewis Hamilton’s ‘shelf life’

Hamilton’s last strong season was 2023, when he finished third in the championship behind the two Red Bull drivers, arguably the best result he could have achieved given the supremacy of the RB19.

Hamilton beat George Russell by 59 points and five places, and yet Mercedes only gave him a one-plus-one contract that summer. In his book, Mercedes F1: Life in the Fast Lane, Wolff explained why.

“There’s a reason why we only signed a one-plus-one-year contract,” he wrote. “We’re in a sport where cognitive sharpness is extremely important, and I believe everyone has a shelf life.”

Prove me wrong: Mercedes would have still let Lewis Hamilton go before 2026 even if he hadn’t joined Ferrari

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Predictably, given that Hamilton had broken every significant F1 record at Mercedes, these remarks triggered a backlash. Wolff later rowed them back by saying that his driver was still ‘very sharp’ and ‘very much there when the car is right’.

Hamilton gave an emphatic response, telling Wolff he was ‘built different’ to every other quadragenerian in F1 history. “They’re nothing like me,” he said.

Now, though, Wolff’s concerns look justified. There’s growing evidence that Hamilton is indeed in decline, through no fault of his own.

The one excuse that doesn’t wash for Lewis Hamilton

Perhaps Hamilton’s issue was specific to the ground-effect cars – a source of optimism for his fans ahead of the 2026 regulation changes. But this explanation is unconvincing.

For one, Hamilton still looked like one of F1’s top drivers in 2022 and 2023 before an alarming drop-off last year. In addition, nobody else on the grid – not even the 44-year-old Fernando Alonso – has had as many complaints.

If Hamilton starts winning races again next year – and he clearly needs a much better car to do so – then he will bust the decline narrative. But the majority of his performances over the last two years suggest those days have passed.

It’s not a slight on Hamilton to suggest that he’s losing some ‘sharpness’. His list of achievements is beyond reproach.

But if he was initially unhappy with Wolff and Mercedes for the comments they made last year, maybe now he can understand their perspective.