Las Vegas Grand Prix race predictions as F1 experts share if Max Verstappen can stay in title fight

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Formula 1 is headed to Las Vegas for the first race in the final triple header of the season as pressure mounts on the drivers’ championship battle.

Lando Norris extended his championship lead at the last grand prix in Sao Paulo after taking victories in both the sprint and main race.

Norris now leads from his McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri by 24 points, after the Aussie lost the top spot in Mexico.

Piastri suffered a difficult weekend at Interlagos, crashing out of the sprint race before being handed a 10-second penalty for causing a collision with Kimi Antonelli during the Brazil Grand Prix safety car restart.

The final triple header has the potential to provide an exciting end to the 2025 drivers’ championship battle, with the McLaren duo and Max Verstappen still in contention for the title.

Read More: 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix race and qualifying times, how to watch and Nevada weather forecast

Who will be the biggest surprise at the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: Given his recent form, anybody writing off Oliver Bearman is making a mistake and he could easily secure a fifth consecutive points finish on his first visit to Las Vegas.

David Comerford: I correctly called Pierre Gasly in Brazil, so I’ll go for another midfield driver here. Let’s say Lance Stroll – he hasn’t scored points in six races, but as I alluded to, there are bound to be incidents here, giving him a chance to end that streak.

Shay Rogers: They excelled at the Brazilian Grand Prix, and I expect that to be the case this weekend as well. Racing Bulls had two cars in the top eight, and both drivers have plenty to fight for. Expect to see an elbows-out approach from both Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson not just in Vegas, but in the weeks following.

Kyle Archer: Sauber rookie Gabriel Bortoleto could not have had a worse experience racing on home soil for the first time at the 2025 Sao Paulo Grand Prix. Bortoleto had a huge crash during the Brazil Sprint, and Lance Stroll also took him out during Lap 1 of the Sao Paulo GP.

But Bortoleto could spring a surprise in Sin City and bounce straight back in this week’s Las Vegas Grand Prix. He was eighth during qualifying for the Italian Grand Prix around the high-speed Monza and finished the race in P8. The Sao Paulo native also showed promising speed around similar tracks to the Las Vegas Strip Circuit in Miami and Azerbaijan earlier this year.

Ashley Hambly: Carlos Sainz. The Spaniard’s heroics in Azerbaijan saw him net Williams’ first podium since 2021, and with the Las Vegas Strip circuit sharing some similarities to the streets of Baku, Sainz could prove that he is the flag-bearer for the Grove-based F1 outfit with another trip to the podium in Sin City.

Tyler Rowlinson: It does sound asinine to name Lewis Hamilton as a ‘surprise’ for the Las Vegas GP this weekend, but the truth is that he has not been near the frontrunners since the summer break. He, and Ferrari, have performed well here in the past. The surprise could very well be that he finally breaks onto the podium in 2025, in what would be a massive statement to John Elkann following his recent criticism.

Who is winning the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: I think Max Verstappen will be doing everything in his power to stay in championship contention, and given there’s every chance the Las Vegas circuit won’t suit McLaren, he should be the favourite to take the win.

David Comerford: McLaren keep playing down their chances, so I expect it to be a battle between George Russell and Max Verstappen, even if this is a race with all the ingredients for an upset. I’ll just about lean towards Verstappen, who still has that new engine.

Shay Rogers: Every time he gets written off, he always seems to come up with something special. That’s why I’m tipping Max Verstappen to win the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Verstappen shares abilities with Michael Schumacher, and they’re going to come alive at the end of the title battle. I’m not saying it will be enough to keep him in the picture, because that depends on how much McLaren struggle, but he’s not done with 2025 just yet.

Kyle Archer: Red Bull racer Max Verstappen will arrive in Nevada for the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix carrying every ounce of pressure to win. The RB21 is widely expected to suit the cool conditions, and Verstappen’s new engine in Brazil should give him an extra advantage.

Ashley Hambly: George Russell. Kimi Antonelli has out-driven his Mercedes counterpart in all of the last three races across both formats, and that certainly won’t sit right with the Brit. The Silver Arrows will be hoping to further bolster the advantage they currently hold to Ferrari in the F1 standings, and Russell taking his first back-to-back wins at a single circuit of his career will be another step in the right direction.

Tyler Rowlinson: Only the top four in the championship have won races in 2025, so I think it’s time we have a new winner this season at Las Vegas, and that’s where Kimi Antonelli comes in.

Vegas has proved to be a solid hunting ground for Mercedes, and with Antonelli being quicker than Russell in Brazil, he is starting to close the gap. If Mercedes can keep up their performances in Vegas, one doesn’t see a reason why the Italian can’t claim a win in his rookie season.

Can Max Verstappen stay in championship contention this weekend?

Ben Evans: Verstappen has every chance of keeping himself in championship contention. Piastri doesn’t appear to know how to extract the maximum from his McLaren, and Norris hasn’t had the best time in Las Vegas in the past.

David Comerford: It all depends where Lando Norris finishes. If he can score a podium, then the gap will still be at least 39 points with two rounds to go – a margin that would rely on a retirement.

Shay Rogers: Verstappen needs a miracle in Qatar to keep things going, that’s where he should be worried, but a one race at a time approach serves well for now. He doesn’t need to get ahead of himself from 49 points behind, and he’ll know that.

Kyle Archer: As Max Verstappen is widely seen as the clear favourite to win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix, the Red Bull star will give his fleeting hopes at retaining the drivers’ title a shot in the arm during what is the first race in which he can be mathematically eliminated.

Ashley Hambly: No. I think the ship has already sailed for the high-flying Dutchman to secure his fifth successive world title. Max Verstappen needs nothing short of a miracle to overturn the current 49-point deficit he is looking at, and the fine form of Lando Norris could be the final nail in the coffin for the Red Bull star. That being said, if anyone’s going to come up with a miraculous performance, it’s going to be Verstappen.

Tyler Rowlinson: Verstappen can do nothing but win to keep his title hopes alive. He will be at an advantage given McLaren’s poor history around the circuit. You cannot count Verstappen out under any circumstances, but the Mercedes will give him a hard time in the cold temperatures. If he doesn’t win, he has to rely on a McLaren disaster, but even then, the gap seems too large to narrow down.

Where can the McLaren drivers finish the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: Although Norris might not win on Sunday, I think he’ll once again finish on the podium, although he’ll have to fight off two Mercedes drivers who will fancy their chances after last year’s result. With Piastri, it’s impossible to say, he could finish first, he could finish fifth, it all depends on whether he can put together a clean weekend.

David Comerford: I think Norris is driving well enough right now to be the best of the rest behind Russell and Verstappen. Piastri’s pace in Brazil was better than his results suggest, so I think he’ll be in the top five, although that won’t be enough to save his total hopes.

Shay Rogers: I think McLaren will find themselves hovering around fifth and sixth. It all depends on whether Norris’ confidence is enough to keep him in contention for a podium. As we all know, Piastri is fighting an uphill battle, so a result for him feels less likely.

Kyle Archer: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will hope to see that McLaren have learnt from their past problems in Nevada to at least finish on the Las Vegas Grand Prix podium in 2025. But Mercedes should be a threat in Sin City’s cool conditions, alongside Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, so McLaren could yet fail to reach the rostrum for the first time in four rounds.

Ashley Hambly: Oscar Piastri second and Lando Norris third. Norris’ impressive form has seen him take a relatively healthy lead into the final three rounds of the season, and he doesn’t need to reinvent the wheel in order to clinch a maiden world championship. All he needs to do is keep his nose clean and limit the damage that his title rivals will be itching to inflict on him. On the other hand, Piastri will find another gear this weekend to finally turn around his recent podium drought. Finishing ahead of his teammate in Nevada will be the first step for him to revive his diminishing hopes of glory.

Tyler Rowlinson: Vegas is the worst circuit for Piastri to recover from his rut in recent races. McLaren have struggled to extract performance around the circuit, and I can see that being the case again in 2025. If they are to score a podium, it will be through Norris, who has found a new gear and looks comfortable at the top of the standings. Piastri needs a strong weekend to stay alive in the title fight, but this track could not have come at a worse time.