Five F1 drivers most at risk of losing their seats in 2026 including Liam Lawson and Lewis Hamilton

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The 2026 Formula 1 season is set to be one of the most exciting seasons in the sport’s history, and also a make-or-break year for several drivers on the grid.

The regulation changes are set to shake up the pecking order, with no one truly knowing where anyone is until cars hit the track. Aston Martin will join Honda, Alpine move to Mercedes, Red Bull become an engine supplier and Audi and Cadillac will join the grid.

Several drivers are also out of contract at the end of 2026, putting them under pressure to deliver results. The new rules will only add to that pressure, as they will have to adapt to the cars as soon as possible, or risk getting left behind.

Some drivers are more secure with their futures, while others may be facing their last chance to prove themselves in F1. So, F1 Oversteer has taken a look at the five drivers who are most at risk of losing their seats in 2026.

Liam Lawson

Liam Lawson will be hoping for some stability in 2026 after a pretty turbulent 2025. After being dropped by Red Bull just two races into the season, he managed to salvage a solid finish with Racing Bulls, scoring 38 points and finishing P14.

However, 2026 could stand as the Kiwi driver’s final chance to prove he has the talent to stay on the grid. He was convincingly beaten by teammate Isack Hadjar, who will race for Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen.

In a way, the 23-year-old has more responsibility on his shoulders in 2026, with rookie Arvid Lindblad joining him next season. He is, technically, the experienced head in the team now, but Lawson has warned Racing Bulls about leaning on him too much.

Ultimately, he knows that he is under pressure and will be expected to get the better of his younger teammate. But if Lindblad beats him, it should almost certainly spell the end of Lawson’s career.

READ MORE: Who is Racing Bulls F1 driver Liam Lawson? Everything you need to know

Franco Colapinto

Franco Colapinto finished as the only driver without a point in 2025, failing to score in 18 races after replacing Jack Doohan at Alpine.

The A525 and Renault’s underperforming power unit did not help him, but neither did more crashes, seen from his Williams days last year, and his pace deficit to Pierre Gasly. Put simply, he has to get closer to his teammate or risk dropping off the grid.

Mercedes’ power unit being strong for 2026 could aid Alpine and Colapinto’s fortunes, but the Argentine has to deliver. He knows full well that he could be replaced at any point, as Flavio Briatore was said to be considering replacing him midway through 2025.

Arvid Lindblad

Lindblad is the only rookie on the grid in 2026, which is enough pressure as it is. But joining the Red Bull setup only heightens that, as they are notorious for making cutthroat decisions with their drivers.

The 18-year-old is highly rated at Red Bull and will be given the support and tools to perform at Racing Bulls. However, his main reference will be his teammate, and with Helmut Marko leaving the team, he has lost his closest supporter.

A poor start to 2026, or a beating from Lawson, might see an early driver swap at Faenza. He will need time in the car, but Laurent Mekies’ doubts over Lindblad’s F2 performances will be vindicated if he cannot cope with the step up to F1.

READ MORE: Who is 2026 Racing Bulls driver Arvid Lindblad? Everything you need to know

Esteban Ocon

Esteban Ocon’s move to Haas in 2025 was seen as an opportunity to establish himself as a lead driver. However, it proved to be the opposite as the Frenchman was outperformed by his rookie teammate Oliver Bearman.

38 points and P15 in the standings does not make for good reading, especially when his teammate was pushing his VF-25 into Q3 and even challenged for a podium in Mexico City. Ocon must be under pressure in 2026, and if Bearman beats him again, Ayao Komatsu should be considering his options.

Lewis Hamilton

After his first season at Ferrari, one that was expected to be the fresh start that he needed, many are left wondering if 2026 could be the last we see of Lewis Hamilton in F1.

The seven-time champion suffered a dismal campaign in 2025, going without a podium for the first time in his career. He will be glad to see the back of the current era of cars, as the 2026 F1 regulations could be the changes that he needs to perform again.

But it is becoming clear that next season could be his last chance, as Ferrari has reportedly decided not to renew Hamilton’s contract, which expires in 2026. If he cannot deliver the results, then the sport could be waving goodbye to one of its greatest ever talents at the end of the year.

The 40-year-old will certainly not go down without a fight and will be hoping that Ferrari can give him the tools to fight at the front. 2026 could be the last chance to win that eighth world championship that has escaped him since 2021.