2025 end-of-season predictions as our F1 experts share if Lando Norris can win the championship

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There are just four races left of the 2025 Formula 1 championship, with the drivers’ championship battle ramping up between three drivers.

Lando Norris took the lead in the title fight after the Mexican Grand Prix, which saw an impressive pole position before leading every lap around the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.

The performance at the Mexican race was a real statement from the McLaren driver, following “repercussions” from the team after he overtook his teammate Oscar Piastri at the Singapore Grand Prix.

Piastri had previously been leading the championship since the Saudi Arabian race in April but now trails Norris by a single point.

Max Verstappen has also brought himself into the title battle, closing the gap to the leaders to 36 points since the summer break.

Ahead of the Mexican Grand Prix weekend, Verstappen admitted he didn’t think this year’s title fight was possible, before admitting he needs the ‘perfect’ end to 2025 to claim his fifth drivers’ championship.

Our experts have shared their predictions for the final four races of the 2025 season, including who they think will be victorious in the drivers’ championship.

Who will be the biggest surprise in the final four 2025 races?

Ben Evans: I think Williams have one more trick up their sleeve this season, and this time it will be Alex Albon returning to the podium for the first time since 2020. He’s been the best midfield driver this season and deserves a standout performance.

David Comerford: Given that Sainz, Isack Hadjar and Nico Hulkenberg have all scored podiums, I wouldn’t rule out another midfield driver joining them before the end of the year. Let’s say Gabriel Bortoleto, although Fernando Alonso is also an option.

Kyle Archer: With the threat of rain already appearing on early forecasts for qualifying day at the 2025 F1 Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Brazil may witness the latest surprise of the season as Aston Martin driver Lance Stroll has shown he can excel in wet conditions and at Interlagos.

Stroll scored his first F1 pole position at the 2020 Turkish Grand Prix with Racing Point and also qualified P4 for the 2017 Italian Grand Prix with Williams in challenging wet conditions. Additionally, Stroll qualified P3 for the 2023 Sao Paulo GP, which he turned into a P5 finish.

Shay Rogers: Watch out for Nico Hulkenberg. With the championship visiting tracks such as Brazil and Las Vegas, experience becomes all the more important. He will have learned from moments such as a race-losing crash at Sao Paulo in 2012, and he should be able to apply it to get a better result in Sauber’s final few races before morphing into a manufacturer team with Audi next year.

Tyler Rowlinson: Oliver Bearman has given everyone every reason to be excited about his short and long-term future in F1. His Mexican GP result shows exactly why he is a top talent in the sport. The Haas may not be the fastest car in the midfield, but the Brit has been putting his VF-25 into Q3 more regularly and is proving a nuisance for his rivals. He is certainly one to keep an eye on.

Ashley Hambly: Alex Albon – The Williams driver has had a torrid time in recent races, having not finished inside the points since the Italian Grand Prix in September. Sainz is now comfortable with the FW47, and Albon will be hoping to finish the season out strong and cement his position as the lead driver at the Grove-based outfit.

Rebecca Braybrook: Williams has shown some real pace in recent grands prix weekends, with Sainz and Albon putting in some impressive laps, especially in practice. The pair have had a difficult run in recent races, but with Sainz’s front row start and podium finish in Azerbaijan, they’ve shown that they can be right there. I think either of the drivers could throw out a big surprise before the end of the year, especially as we head to a predicted rainy Sao Paulo, which saw the shock Alpine double podium last year.

Which F1 driver will be the biggest flop in the last four races of 2025?

Ben Evans: Franco Colapinto’s Alpine future could be decided before the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, but he showed last season that when he pushes to the limit, he makes mistakes. Alpine have nothing to play for, but if his future’s still in doubt, he could end up making some expensive errors again.

David Comerford: Alex Albon. He’s rather lost his way lately, with Carlos Sainz becoming the lead driver at Williams. Even with that Baku podium, it feels as if the team and their drivers are mentally in 2026 with P5 in the standings virtually safe already.

Kyle Archer: The pressure is very much on Yuki Tsunoda to deliver points for Red Bull over the final four rounds, as the Japanese racer fights for a future in F1. Red Bull need Tsunoda to finally step up and deliver consistently as they fight for P2 in the constructors’ standings.

It is also said that Red Bull fear announcing that Tsunoda is leaving could harm their hopes in the constructors’ championship, with Ferrari and Mercedes only 10 and nine points clear. But Red Bull have been a one-man team, and Tsunoda is unlikely to suddenly change that.

Shay Rogers: With his future set to be confirmed soon, I expect that Yuki Tsunoda is going to have a tough end to the season. He has tried everything to fix his woes all season, and what does he have left to fight for if he ends up off the grid heading into the 2026 F1 regulations? His team are going to prioritise Verstappen in every way they can, meaning that he could be in for a tough time between now and Abu Dhabi.

Tyler Rowlinson: Red Bull may have already made their decision on Yuki Tsunoda and his future beyond 2025. With it being likely that he will leave the team at the end of the year, I can’t see that doing good for his confidence.

The Japanese driver is already struggling with performance in the second RB21. Knowing that his future is outside of F1, with Racing Bulls set to sign Lawson and Lindblad and Aston Martin announcing Jak Crawford as their third driver, I don’t see his results improving.

Ashley Hambly: Lando Norris – Taking the lead of the championship with four races to go could probably have been the worst possible outcome for the Brit. The upcoming Sao Paulo Grand Prix may bring back some bad memories from his fragile 2024 championship challenge, and it could bring the whole house down in the process.

Rebecca Braybrook: Oscar Piastri’s recent performances have been concerning to watch, especially now the Aussie has lost the championship lead. Piastri has had a difficult couple of races, starting when he was overtaken in Singapore and his United States Grand Prix sprint crash into his teammate. I think the pressure could be starting to show some cracks and ultimately, I think he will drop away from the title fight.

Which team will take second place in the 2025 constructors’ fight?

Ben Evans: I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Ferrari’s superior driver line-up will see them get over the line and finish second. Lewis Hamilton is surely destined to finish on the podium for the first time at one of his favourite races at Interlagos.

David Comerford: Extremely difficult to call between Mercedes and Ferrari, with Yuki Tsunoda still holding Red Bull back. I’ll go for Ferrari as they’re now in slightly better form, but Kimi Antonelli’s improvement means it won’t be easy.

Kyle Archer: Just 10 points separate Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull in the fight for second place in the 2025 F1 constructors’ championship. But Red Bull will need Max Verstappen to score big points to overcome fighting against teams who can rely on two drivers each week.

Ferrari and Mercedes are likely to take the fight for second place down to the wire in Abu Dhabi, where the Scuderia will expect to triumph. The SF-25’s strengths should be enough for Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to out-score Mercedes’ George Russell-led attack.

Shay Rogers: This is a hard one. Red Bull are running a one-car team, while it’s always tough to predict what Mercedes and Ferrari will bring to the table. Simply because Kimi Antonelli has been absent at too many races this year, I’d back Ferrari to finish second, just ahead of Mercedes and Red Bull.

If Verstappen throws everything at the title race, with little caution to the wind, a retirement would kill their chances. There’s a lower probability of them coming out on top, while Ferrari looked good in Mexico, and will be hoping to build on that performance.

Tyler Rowlinson: As good as Verstappen has been in 2025, as last year proved, he cannot win the constructors’ title on his own, so Tsunoda’s struggles immediately rules Red Bull out of the running.

Mercedes are struggling to extract the maximum from the W16, and this inconsistency will let them down. That leaves Ferrari to take the runner-up spot, having made strong improvements in the past few races and Charles Leclerc breaking the top three regularly.

Ashley Hambly: Ferrari – The Scuderia look like they have got what it takes to be able to consistently get their drivers within the top five positions in the final four rounds of the season. Hamilton’s performances still leave a lot to be desired, but if he manages to keep his nose clean and show what he is really capable of then the Prancing Horse shouldn’t have any issues in finishing as the runners-up again.

Rebecca Braybrook: Like much of the F1 Oversteer team, I think that Ferrari will be able to take second in the constructors’ title. Both Leclerc and Hamilton are starting to consistently perform and with Verstappen essentially keeping the team afloat and Mercedes having a dip in performance, the Italian team will take it.

Which driver will be named the 2025 world champion?

Ben Evans: Although he denies that it will play a factor, I think the momentum Lando Norris has generated in recent races will see him get over the line ahead of Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen. Piastri looks like he’s one season away from being ready to win the championship, while Red Bull’s slight performance deficit to McLaren will likely cost Verstappen.

David Comerford:  I mentally discounted Max Verstappen earlier this year and I won’t make that mistake again. Red Bull’s Mexico performance will dent his confidence, but Pato O’Ward expects the rivalry at McLaren to heat up and I can’t shake the feeling there’ll be an explosive incident between the two drivers that opens the door for Verstappen, who only needs a glimmer of light.

Kyle Archer: With four rounds of the 2025 F1 season remaining, it is still too early to say for sure who will win the drivers’ title. The momentum is with Lando Norris after taking the lead in the standings for the first time since April, but that can ease the pressure off Oscar Piastri.

Since Norris retired from the Dutch Grand Prix due to an oil leak, he has outscored Piastri in each of the past five rounds to overturn a 34-point deficit. Yet if Piastri can respond at tracks more suited to him than Austin and Mexico, he will feel the title is still there for the taking.

Shay Rogers: You can never count Max Verstappen out of any fight, and I think he’s going to play a major role in the title battle, but Lando Norris comes out on top in 2025. He has the momentum, he has the experience, and it feels like the last few seasons have been preparing him exactly for this moment. Norris has a new calmness that will help him when situations intensify, and his teammate looking a little lost is only going to assist his charge further.

Tyler Rowlinson: This title fight will go down to the wire, but at the moment, it is hard to look past Lando Norris for the championship. One cannot count Max Verstappen out, but the 36-point gap to Oscar Piastri may be too much to make up with the pace of the McLaren. The Aussie is on a poor run of form, and with the momentum on his side and a newfound confidence, Norris must be considered the favourite to bring this title home.

Ashley Hambly: Oscar Piastri – I don’t believe that the Australian has suddenly lost his abilities as an F1 race winner to languish in the bottom half of the points-paying positions for very long. Now that he is no longer in the leading role of the title fight, Piastri can regather his composure and start acting like the hunter, rather than the hunted. Now that the stakes are even higher for him, he will prove that he has what it takes to be a world champion.

Rebecca Braybrook: I think we will see the 2025 title fight go down to the final race in Abu Dhabi, granted there are no retirements in the three races beforehand. I personally think it will be between Norris and Verstappen, although the Brit will just clinch it and claim his first championship victory. Norris has started to have a turn of form and show his strength in previous races, and I think the gap might be slightly too big for Verstappen to close.