Qatar Grand Prix race predictions as F1 experts share if Lando Norris can take 2025 title in Lusail

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The penultimate Formula 1 race of the 2025 season gets underway this weekend in Qatar, with focus on the drivers’ championship battle.

Lando Norris continues to lead the drivers’ title fight after the Las Vegas Grand Prix, despite both himself and McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri finding themselves disqualified.

The championship leaders both lost their results from the race in Vegas after the team was found to have breached the plank-wear regulations.

With both McLarens disqualified, Max Verstappen has been able to pull himself closer to a potential fifth title victory, as he is now joint on points in the standings with Piastri.

There is everything to play for heading into the final two races, with our experts sharing their predictions for this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix.

Read More: 2025 Qatar Grand Prix sprint, race and qualifying times, how to watch and previous winner

Who will take pole position for the Qatar Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: All of the momentum is on Max Verstappen’s side, and after setting the fastest lap in qualifying in Qatar last season, he’s the favourite to repeat that feat again this weekend.

David Comerford: Max Verstappen. I think I’m picking him every week, but he’s virtually delivering every week. McLaren will be more cautious with their car in Qatar, prioritising the podium over a win as they enter a defensive mode. Verstappen’s all-out aggression, on a track that should suit Red Bull, will pay off.

Kyle Archer: Much like the 2025 F1 drivers’ championship, the fight for pole positions so far this year has predominantly featured Lando Norris, Max Verstappen (7) and Oscar Piastri (5). Norris became the first driver to secure three straight poles in 2025 at the Las Vegas GP, too.

But Piastri will fancy his chances of ending Norris’ qualifying streak and scoring his first pole since the Dutch Grand Prix in round 15/24 for the Qatar Grand Prix. Piastri won the Sprint at Lusail from pole in 2023, and likes the high-grip track more than F1’s recent low-grip tracks.

Shay Rogers: I’m going to say Max Verstappen comes out on top in Qatar, with McLaren a little on the back foot following Las Vegas. They can’t afford to set their cars up very aggressively again, and Red Bull are on the other end of that scale entirely. They’re about to throw everything they have at this.

Ashley Hambly: Lando Norris has shown some fine form over a single-lap in recent race weekends, and I’m thoroughly expecting the championship leader to continue that in Qatar. Red Bull may favour a race trim for Max Verstappen’s RB21 in order to maximise his potential in the Grand Prix, leaving the door wide open for the British driver to take his eighth pole of the year.

Tyler Rowlinson: McLaren will be looking to bounce back from their double DSQ in Las Vegas on a track that has typically suited their car. However, Max Verstappen is breathing down their neck and is also strong at this circuit, and it would not be surprising to see him snatch pole position in a tense qualifying session.

Who is winning the Qatar Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: Max Verstappen has shown throughout his F1 career that he’s an expert at maximising his opportunities, and he will know that victory in Qatar is essential to keeping his title hopes alive. It’s hard to look past him, especially if McLaren decide against using team orders to try and protect Norris’ advantage.

David Comerford: Verstappen will easily convert pole position, and the real question will be whether George Russell and an in-form Kimi Antonelli can beat the McLarens. I don’t have much hope for Ferrari – they just can’t execute a full weekend.

Kyle Archer: With F1 mandating maximum stint lengths of 25 laps for the Qatar Grand Prix, McLaren will likely lose some of their advantage at keeping their tyres in a better operating window in hot conditions. But Lando Norris will still be confident about winning on Sunday.

After McLaren’s double disqualification from the Las Vegas Grand Prix last weekend, Norris and Piastri will be desperate to bounce back immediately at Lusail. But Piastri has struggled to overcome his recent setbacks, while Norris believes he has now improved his mentality.

Shay Rogers: On the subject of aggression, expect nothing but that on Sunday, too. The title fight ends if Verstappen lets Norris beat him, so expect him to land some blows if the McLaren driver is able to get close enough to him. He just wants a chance going in to Abu Dhabi.

Ashley Hambly: The Lusail International Circuit is the only track where Oscar Piastri has registered multiple wins at during his F1 career, albeit in the Sprint format. It’s now or never for the previously long-time championship leader, and I think he will most definitely rise to the occasion.

Tyler Rowlinson: Mercedes and Ferrari could have an outside chance, but I think it’s between the McLarens and Verstappen for victory. Oscar Piastri desperately needs a win to get his title hopes alive, and his form at this circuit suggests that he should be strong here – this is where he will bounce back with a crucial win.

Will Verstappen overtake Piastri in the title fight this weekend?

Ben Evans: Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to see Piastri’s form picking up in Qatar despite his past strong performance at the Lusail circuit. After looking like the favourite to win the championship for so long, he now looks destined to finish third in the championship.

David Comerford: Race start aside, Norris still drove well in Vegas, while Piastri’s malaise continued. There’s optimism that this track may suit him better but I find it difficult to envisage him recapturing his best form from here. The Aussie may get back on the podium, but he’ll still drop to third and I see him staying there.

Kyle Archer: McLaren duo Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have occupied the top two spots in the F1 drivers’ championship since round 4 of 24 at the Bahrain Grand Prix. But Red Bull rival Max Verstappen will fancy his chances of surpassing Piastri after the Qatar Grand Prix.

Verstappen has outscored Piastri in each of the last seven rounds, including the Las Vegas Grand Prix before the latter was disqualified from P4 while the former won in Sin City. The Dutchman has not finished behind Piastri since the Dutch GP, when they were P2 and P1.

Shay Rogers: Oscar Piastri finishing third feels like a bit of a foregone conclusion now. Momentum is with his rivals and although a disqualification helped him last weekend, he just doesn’t have the pace to keep up right now.

Ashley Hambly: Max Verstappen’s good fortune has come a little too late for him. Looking at the final two circuits that will round out the year, I think McLaren will return to their former ways and secure back-to-back one-two finishes, and end the season with the same formation in the F1 standings.

Tyler Rowlinson: As I’m backing Piastri for victory, Verstappen will remain behind his Australian rival in Qatar. He just has to hope that he beats Norris to keep his title chances alive and take the fight to Abu Dhabi.

Will Lando Norris become the 2025 champion in Qatar?

Ben Evans: I think Verstappen will outscore Norris in Qatar and give fans the finale they’ve been dreaming of!

David Comerford: Not this weekend for me. Verstappen will win both races, and Norris’ lead will sit between 10 and 15 points. That’s enough that he should still be able to close the deal in Abu Dhabi without a mistake or a car failure.

Kyle Archer: Lando Norris can win the 2025 F1 drivers’ championship and secure McLaren their first title since 2008 if he outscores Oscar Piastri and also Max Verstappen by just two points across the Qatar Grand Prix weekend, where 33 points are available with the Sprint.

So, Piastri and Verstappen will have to hope that at least one of them can get ahead of the Briton or he suffers yet more misfortune at Lusail to take the title fight to Abu Dhabi. Norris, though, will believe he can win the Qatar GP on Sunday to also win this year’s drivers’ title.

Shay Rogers: The title goes down to the wire in Abu Dhabi, and similar to what happened in both 2016, and 2021, one driver will be left hoping for a miracle from multiple other drivers to come out on top. Verstappen isn’t dirty and has a good relationship with Norris, so he won’t compromise anything there, but there’s room for drama.

Ashley Hambly: Abu Dhabi will house yet another thrilling title showdown following Oscar Piastri’s triumph in Qatar. Let’s just hope Bernd Maylander has a much quieter evening in the Safety Car this time…

Tyler Rowlinson: Most people will want to see another title climax in Abu Dhabi, and I’m one of them! Piastri’s win in Qatar, if it happens, will mean that the championship will be decided at the season finale – Norris will have to wait until then to try and seal the deal.