Mexican Grand Prix race predictions as F1 experts share if Max Verstappen can beat McLaren again

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The Mexican Grand Prix is set to take place this weekend at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez as the 2025 drivers’ championship heats up.

Max Verstappen dominated the United States Grand Prix last weekend, after taking both pole position and the victory in both the Sprint race and main grand prix.

After winning three out of the last four races, the Dutchman has pulled himself into contention for the 2025 championship title, trailing leader Oscar Piastri by 40 points, with five races remaining.

It was a difficult weekend for McLaren, with Piastri attempting a switch back on teammate Lando Norris into Turn 1 at the start of the Sprint race, resulting in a crash which took both cars out of the event.

Despite Norris finishing the United States Grand Prix in second, it was a disappointing weekend for Piastri, giving Verstappen the prime opportunity to pull himself closer to the 2025 title.

Our experts have shared their predictions for the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix, including who they think will be victorious this weekend.

Read more: 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix: qualifying and race times, how to watch and weather forecast

Who will take pole position for the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: Max Verstappen feels like the obvious answer, but he’s only been on pole position once in Mexico City. I’m going to go with Lando Norris, he’s the quicker of the two McLaren drivers right now and could pile even more pressure on Oscar Piastri on Saturday.

David Comerford: I just can’t see past anyone other than Max Verstappen. Red Bull will be able to trim off downforce given the altitude, and that’s when the RB21 really comes into his own.

Shay Rogers: Max Verstappen. With high altitude comes a decrease in straight-line efficiency, which is one of McLaren’s strengths. Verstappen has been on form over one lap recently, and he likes the Mexico City circuit.

Tyler Rowlinson: At the moment, it’s hard to look past Max Verstappen for pole position. He and his Red Bull are quick at every circuit, and with the momentum he is carrying, I expect another standout performance from the best driver on the F1 grid.

Rebecca Braybrook: Charles Leclerc is the only current driver to have taken multiple pole positions at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez since it returned to the calendar in 2015. Ferrari has been strong around the track in previous years, so I don’t think they can be ruled out of a potential pole position here, despite their recent struggles.

Who will win the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: While I don’t think Verstappen will take pole position, his five wins in Mexico City highlight how good he is at making his way to the front of the pack at the circuit. He’s my selection to win the race on Sunday.

David Comerford: Verstappen. The run to turn one is decisive these days and the world champion never has had a bad start. The momentum he’s building right now is truly frightening.

Shay Rogers: Max Verstappen. It seems obvious, but Red Bull continue to develop their car as McLaren’s focus remains on 2026 back at the factory. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are under a bit of pressure now, but their relative inexperience won’t be helpful. Expect Verstappen to position his car well off the start, and try to pull a gap.

Tyler Rowlinson: Again, it’s hard to look beyond Verstappen. No one has come near him in recent races, winning in Monza, Baku and Austin in dominant fashion – another commanding performance could well be on the cards this weekend.

Rebecca Braybrook: Although Verstappen has dominated in recent races, the McLaren duo will be facing increasing pressure to perform this weekend. I think if either Piastri or Norris outqualifies Verstappen here, then they have a good shot of winning the Mexico City Grand Prix.

Which rookie will be the most impressive during the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix FP1 session?

Ben Evans: There are so many to choose from that it’s not an easy decision! I would love Antonio Fuoco to do well as the first Italian to drive for Ferrari in F1 since Giancarlo Fisichella, but I think Paul Aron sniffs a chance of an Alpine seat in 2026, and this is the make or break session to pile more pressure on Franco Colapinto.

David Comerford: It has to be Arvid Lindblad. Red Bull will decide on their line-ups after Mexico, and he can’t afford a shaky session if he wants that Racing Bulls seat, particularly given his recent troubles in Formula 2.

Shay Rogers: Watch out for Fred Vesti. How he hasn’t had a shot in Formula 1 yet is almost unbelievable. He was in quick in Formula 2 (finishing as runner-up in 2023), and has been a very solid reserve for Mercedes.

At the age of 22, he has plenty of good years left ahead of him, and he’s in a good setup. He’s a quiet candidate for a seat in 2027, and if he performs well in Mexico, teams may take notice. Earlier on this season in Bahrain, he also completed an FP1 session, beating Red Bull’s Ayumu Iwasa.

Tyler Rowlinson: There’s plenty to choose from and I’m excited to see them all in action, but for me, I’m keeping a close eye on Jak Crawford. With Fernando Alonso potentially retiring in 2027, Aston do need to think about life without the Spaniard; Crawford could put his hat in the ring if he impresses this weekend and with future tests in 2026.

Rebecca Braybrook: I’m really looking forward to seeing Pato O’Ward climb into the McLaren for an FP1 session on his home soil. The Arrow McLaren driver had a strong 2025 season in IndyCar, finishing runner-up in the championship behind dominant Alex Palou.

With the news that Colton Herta has left IndyCar for an F2 seat and a reserve role in Cadillac’s F1 team next year, it shows there is the prospect for more movement between the series.

Do you think McLaren will struggle again at the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix after a difficult race at COTA?

Ben Evans: I think things have to get better for McLaren and expect Norris and Piastri to be under strict instructions not to tangle again. If they do, I wouldn’t be surprised if the culprit ends up being asked to support his teammate for the rest of the season…

David Comerford: I could see McLaren getting two cars on the podium here, or two in the top four at least. Piastri struggled at the US Grand Prix but Norris’ pace on Sunday was overlooked – with a better start, he would have been racing Verstappen for the win.

Shay Rogers: It’s hard to see McLaren struggling yet again. The sprint race collision was a slip up, and they admitted that they had the pace to win, but were blindsided by their setup, and had to take things conservatively. The middle sector suits their car more than anyone else, so expect that advantage to pay dividends for them. They’ll be in contention, but the rest will be down to the drivers. Can they outsmart the four-time champion?

Tyler Rowlinson: McLaren need to step up this weekend to have any chance of holding on to the drivers’ title, but this could be another tricky race. Oscar Piastri’s issue with low grip circuit could plague him in Mexico City, which will open the door for Verstappen to close the gap even further in the title fight.

Rebecca Braybrook: I don’t see McLaren struggling for pace this weekend, although all focus will be on whether Piastri and Norris can have a clean race. It is highly likely that the pair have been thoroughly briefed on “papaya rules” again after the United States Grand Prix Sprint race crash, so I expect the pair will be overly cautious with each other.