F1 experts share Japanese Grand Prix predictions including George Russell’s Suzuka victory chances

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Following a thrilling Chinese Grand Prix that saw Kimi Antonelli claim his maiden Formula 1 victory, attention now turns to Suzuka for the Japanese Grand Prix. Our F1 experts have shared their predictions, including whether George Russell can return to the top step of the podium.

Antonelli made history in Shanghai by becoming the youngest driver ever to secure pole position, surpassing a record previously held by Sebastian Vettel since the 2008 Italian Grand Prix.

Mercedes locked out the front row, but it was Lewis Hamilton who made the stronger start, snatching the lead in the opening moments. Antonelli, however, quickly reclaimed control by the second lap and never looked back.

George Russell followed suit soon after, overtaking Hamilton just two laps later to secure another dominant 1-2 finish for Mercedes, their second in a row.

Behind them, the battle for the final podium place delivered plenty of drama, as Hamilton fought off sustained pressure from Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc, ultimately holding on to finish third.

Read More: Kimi Antonelli wins the Chinese Grand Prix with George Russell securing second one-two for Mercedes

Which driver is taking the Japanese Grand Prix pole position?

David Comerford – George Russell: I don’t think Ferrari are close enough to properly challenge yet, and I expect a bounce-back weekend from Russell after he lost out to Antonelli in China.

Kyle Archer – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: Mercedes gem Andrea Kimi Antonelli will arrive at the Japanese Grand Prix on a high after scoring his first win in F1 in the Chinese Grand Prix from pole position. The Italian also set the fastest lap of the race at Suzuka last season. So, he will feel confident about his chances of now taking pole for the 2026 edition of the Japanese GP.

Tyler Rowlinson – Max Verstappen: Well, this is out there isn’t it? Yes, it is, but I think Suzuka could throw up some surprises this weekend. The track could better suit the RB22, and with Verstappen’s record around here, having won the last four races, I’m backing him to produce more magic and stun Mercedes and Ferrari for pole position.

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – George Russell: Russell may have applauded seeing Kimi Antonelli win the Chinese GP, but he will be eager to remind everyone he is the lead driver. Securing pole position at Suzuka will be a priority for him.

Luke Newman – George Russell: I understand that this may seem like the predictable choice, but after losing to his teammate in China, George Russell is gearing up for revenge this weekend. He will be more determined than ever to assert his dominance over Kimi Antonelli right from the start of the weekend.

Rebecca Braybrook – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: I think it’s expected that Mercedes will continue to dominate in this early part of the season, and following on from a really strong weekend in China, I think Antonelli has what it takes to put his car on pole again.

Who will stand on the podium at the Japanese Grand Prix?

David Comerford – Russell, Antonelli, Leclerc: Russell will convert pole to take the victory, and then we’ll see Antonelli finish second. The Ferraris will go head-to-head for the final podium spot again, and Leclerc will win out. I expect McLaren and Red Bull to be back in the conversation come Miami.

Kyle Archer – Russell, Antonelli, Hamilton: It will be a case of the usual suspects fighting for the podium in the 2026 Japanese Grand Prix, as Mercedes and Ferrari are the clear class of the field so far. George Russell will also be desperate to hit back after Andrea Kimi Antonelli won in China, where Lewis Hamilton got his first podium for Ferrari and can now back it up.

Tyler Rowlinson – Verstappen, Hamilton, Russell: Predicting Verstappen to take pole is bold enough, but the win as well? Yes indeed. Even with the new regulations increasing overtakes due to energy management, Suzuka is not a track renowned for overtaking. I think Verstappen will hold his own against a charging Lewis Hamilton and George Russell and claim what could be his only win of the season. He loves this track and knows how to win here, even without the fastest car.

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Hamilton, Russell, Leclerc: I expect both Ferrari drivers to make it to the podium, with Lewis Hamilton building on his momentum from the first two races and earning his first win with Ferrari. Pole position won’t be enough to get Russell the win, but it’s hard to see him falling below second. Charles Leclerc will earn his second podium finish this season.

Luke Newman – Leclerc, Antonelli, Hamilton: I may have had Russell as my pole sitter, but his absence from my podium prediction will make sense in my next prediction. Ferrari have not won at the Japanese Grand Prix since 2004, but I believe they will return to winning ways this weekend with Charles Leclerc taking his first win of the year. I believe he will be joined on the podium by Kimi Antonelli, who will still be on a high from China, and Lewis Hamilton, who will be back on the podium again.

Rebecca Braybrook – Antonelli, Russell, Leclerc: Similar to David, I think that it will be another Mercedes 1-2 this weekend, although I think Antonelli will be able to retain his pole position once again to claim his second consecutive victory. I also think we will see a similar Ferrari battle this weekend, but Charles Leclerc will come out on top.

Which car will be the first to retire this weekend in Suzuka?

David Comerford – Fernando Alonso: You have to go with an Aston Martin really based on the evidence we have. From there, it’s a toss of a coin, but I’ll say Alonso as Stroll went out early last time.

Kyle Archer – Fernando Alonso: It is a matter of when rather than if Aston Martin will retire from the Japanese Grand Prix at Honda’s own circuit due to their ongoing engine reliability and vibration problems. Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso lasted nine and 32 laps last time out in the Chinese Grand Prix, and Aston Martin will hope to reach half-distance at Suzuka.

Tyler Rowlinson – Lance Stroll: I mean, this is almost a given at this point. Honda will not want a disaster on home soil, but I can’t see them improving Aston Martin’s woes anytime soon. It’ll be another weekend of misery for Stroll as he is forced to retire early with either another mechanical problem, or he has enough of being thrown around the cockpit with the vibrations.

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Lance Stroll: A disappointing home race for Honda, as their power unit issues will lead to Stroll calling it an early race again. It’s a toss-up between him and Alonso, but I can see Stroll being called in early.

Luke Newman – George Russell: I’m going to make a bold prediction: I believe Russell will be the first driver to retire from the Japanese Grand Prix. However, I don’t think it will be due to a mechanical failure. Instead, I anticipate that he will be involved in an incident that forces him to retire for the first time this season, which will result in him losing control of the championship.

Rebecca Braybrook – Carlos Sainz: I’m not going to say the obvious answer of an Aston Martin, as that seems almost guaranteed at the moment. Unfortunately, I think Williams’ string of bad luck will continue for a third weekend running and I predict Carlos Sainz will be first out of the race.

Which driver will be the biggest surprise at the Japanese Grand Prix?

David Comerford – Esteban Ocon: He is coming under some pressure at Haas, particularly after Oliver Bearman’s fantastic start. I think he’ll respond this weekend with a top-seven result, or maybe even his first top-six for over a year.

Kyle Archer – Alex Albon: Williams have had a hugely disappointing start to 2026, but Carlos Sainz took their first points with P9 in the Chinese Grand Prix – in part due to Red Bull’s Max Verstappen retiring and McLaren’s Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri both not starting. Yet Alex Albon, who also did not start in China, could spring a surprise in the Japanese Grand Prix by registering Williams’ first points entirely on merit this season with a top 10 finish at Suzuka.

Tyler Rowlinson – Gabriel Bortoleto: Audi have been pleasantly surprising thus far in 2026. They’ve definitely got the potential to push on, and after not making it out of the garage in China, I think Bortoleto could deliver a strong weekend in Japan.

Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Sergio Perez: I don’t think Perez will get into the points, but I expect him to steer the Cadillac into the top 15. It’ll help if there are a few early retirements like in Shanghai, but I expect him to surprise everyone with an unexpectedly high finish.

Luke Newman – Oscar Piastri: Can we consider Oscar Piastri a surprise result after his poor start to the 2026 season? Well, I’m going to. The Australian hasn’t started a Grand Prix this season yet, but I think he will this weekend and will finish the Japanese Grand Prix in fourth place.

Rebecca Braybrook – Pierre Gasly: Alpine have quietly gone under the radar so far this season, despite already scoring nearly half of their 2025 points in the first two races. Gasly finished sixth last weekend, but I wonder if there is more the Frenchman can provide in Japan.