Lando Norris
McLaren
Mercedes
Red Bull
Ferrari
Williams
Racing Bulls
Aston Martin
Haas
Alpine
Spa is getting ready for the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix, so our expert writers have made their predictions as Ferrari attempt to take the fight to Mercedes for pole and the win.
Ferrari have proven in recent rounds that their work to develop the SF-26 has brought Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc into the conversation for the top prizes. Hamilton took his first win in red in Barcelona and took Sprint pole at Silverstone, while Leclerc won the British GP.
Hamilton’s Sprint pole at Silverstone and Leclerc’s British GP win both came as a surprise, as the Ferrari SF-26 was not fancied to fight the Mercedes W17 on the power-sensitive track in Northamptonshire. Now, even the power-hungry Spa might not be an issue for the Scuderia.
While Mercedes racers Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell will arrive in the Ardennes forest as the favourites for victory at Spa for many in the paddock, Ferrari’s downforce levels should make them a threat at the Belgian GP as it could ease their fears for energy recovery.
Rain is even on the forecast for Spa this weekend, which could throw a few of the teams off their games at the Belgian GP. With that in mind, F1 Oversteer’s expert team of writers have provided their predictions for the Belgian GP, including who the surprise package could be…
Drop your podium prediction for the Belgian Grand Prix 👇
Who will score pole position for the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix at Spa?
Kyle Archer – Charles Leclerc: “Spa is a special circuit for Charles Leclerc, as it is where the Monegasque scored his first career F1 win in the 2019 Belgian Grand Prix. Leclerc also took pole for the Belgian GP in 2019, 2023 and 2024, and he can get his fourth career pole at Spa this weekend thanks to the cooler conditions on the forecast and Ferrari’s downforce.”
READ MORE: How to watch the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix, plus the weather forecast for Spa
Aaditya Krishnamurthy – George Russell: “George Russell is coming off successive strong performances, including winning the Austrian GP and taking a P2 finish in the British GP.
“It has been a run that has been crucial for Russell to get his confidence back. And coming to Spa, Mercedes should have a massive edge over their rivals. So, I expect the Briton to put up some rapid times in qualifying and earn pole.”
David Comerford – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: “Kimi Antonelli has not won any of the last three races, despite looking like the quickest driver in two of them (Barcelona and Great Britain).
“So, I expect Antonelli to have a bounce-back weekend in Belgium. Mercedes are unbeaten in qualifying so far this year, and nothing about Spa’s layout suggests that streak will end.”
Who will win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix, and which drivers will join them on the podium?
Kyle Archer – Antonelli, Russell, Leclerc: “While Ferrari might give Charles Leclerc a car that he can get pole position in at Spa on Saturday, the inherent strengths of the Mercedes W17 in race conditions against the SF-26 will likely allow Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell to outpace the Monegasque over the 44 laps and fight for the win between them.”
Aaditya Krishnamurthy – Russell, Antonelli, Hamilton: “The top three in the F1 drivers’ championship standings ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix are going to be in the mix for the podium at Spa.
“Given Ferrari’s struggles when it comes to straight-line speed, I can’t see Lewis Hamilton or Charles Leclerc getting the better of either Mercedes driver.
“As for Kimi Antonelli, he is due a bounce-back outing. So, even though the young Italian will not win, a return to the podium will be huge for him.”
David Comerford – Antonelli, Verstappen, Russell: “Kimi Antonelli will hold on as long as he keeps it clean. Max Verstappen and Red Bull struggled at Silverstone, but he’s particularly special at this track, and I think he could repeat his Austria result here if the RB22 runs without any glitches. George Russell will then beat the Ferraris to third.”
F1 experts make one bold prediction for the 2026 Belgian Grand Prix
Where do Eau Rouge and Raidillon rank among Formula 1’s best corners?
Kyle Archer: “Alpine driver Franco Colapinto has never achieved great results at Spa, yet the Argentine might easily finish the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix as the ‘best of the rest’ behind whichever drivers from the established top four teams take the chequered flag this Sunday.
“Colapinto has already been the ‘best of the rest’ once this season when he came P6 in the Canadian Grand Prix, which is a somewhat comparable race to the Belgian GP. The forecast for Spa is similar to the cool conditions that F1 enjoyed in Montreal, and Alpine also use the Mercedes power unit that is widely said to be the most efficient with energy management.”
Aaditya Krishnamurthy: “McLaren’s struggles have been well-documented this season, and I can see both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri having such a catastrophic weekend that they both could fall out of the points positions in the Belgian GP.”
David Comerford: “It looks like there could be some rain during qualifying, which would be a major curveball in these cars. The top four teams usually lock out the front four rows, but we could see someone disrupt that this weekend. I’ll go for Pierre Gasly because he’s been driving brilliantly this year.”
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