Austrian Grand Prix predictions as F1 experts decide if Lewis Hamilton win makes him title favourite

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The 2026 F1 season rolls on with the Austrian Grand Prix this weekend at the Red Bull Ring, where a second Ferrari win for Lewis Hamilton may make him the title favourite.

Mercedes ace Andrea Kimi Antonelli will head to Styria leading the F1 drivers’ championship after the first seven of the year’s 22 rounds. But Hamilton has become a genuine contender for what would be his eighth title, after winning last time out in the Barcelona-Catalunya GP.

A first Ferrari win for Hamilton in the Barcelona-Catalunya GP moved the Briton to 41 points behind Antonelli at the top of the standings, with the Italian boasting 156 and the Briton on 115. Hamilton’s deficit would have been more had Antonelli not retired after moving into P2.

Hamilton will now hope to further reduce Antonelli’s advantage at the Austrian GP, too, as it is said that Ferrari will debut an upgraded engine at the Red Bull Ring that simulations show is worth 0.2 seconds per lap. It is the first of two engine upgrades that Ferrari can introduce.

With that in mind, F1 Oversteer’s expert team of writers have revealed their predictions for the 2026 Austrian GP, from who will take pole position to who will win at the Red Bull Ring.

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Who will score pole position for the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – Lando Norris: “Mercedes’ 2026 engine should give the Silver Arrows a clear advantage at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix. But Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell should not ignore the threat that Lando Norris could present in the McLaren, at least during qualifying, given that they have the same engine and the Briton is fast at the Red Bull Ring.”

READ MORE: How to watch the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix on TV, plus the weather forecast

David Comerford – George Russell: “Let’s see how Ferrari’s upgrade performs. But, for now, I think we have to make Mercedes the favourite given the power-hungry nature of this track. George Russell seemed to make a breakthrough in qualifying in Barcelona, so I’ll back him to shade Kimi Antonelli for pole here.”

Marcus Chan – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: “After his retirement in Barcelona, I am backing Kimi Antonelli to immediately bounce back by securing pole position for the Austrian Grand Prix, ahead of George Russell and Max Verstappen.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: “The Red Bull Ring should suit Mercedes’ engine, so the Silver Arrows should get back on top this weekend. Kimi Antonelli continues to have the upper hand over George Russell, and the Brit has no answers at the moment. The Italian will continue his strong qualifying record in 2026 and take the pole in Austria.”

Which driver is the favourite to win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?

Kyle Archer – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: “While Mercedes’ engine could help McLaren during qualifying, the MCL40 is no match in race conditions for the W17. So, Andrea Kimi Antonelli will fancy his chances of winning the Austrian Grand Prix – even if the Italian has to overtake teammate George Russell again like he did in Barcelona, before instantly retiring from P2.”

David Comerford – George Russell: “We could see a brilliant battle between the Mercedes drivers here because this track is great for racing, although the 2026 regulations could lead to a little too much pass and re-pass.

“I’m not sure why my confidence in George Russell is still so high, given that Kimi Antonelli has consistently looked quicker, but I refuse to believe that he’s shown everything he has.”

Marcus Chan – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: “Having clinched pole position, I expect Mercedes’ advantage to allow Kimi Antonelli to lead the Austrian GP from start to finish and get his title charge back on track.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Andrea Kimi Antonelli: “Mercedes’ young star will show the dominance he had shown before Barcelona in Austria. I don’t think anyone gets near him this weekend, and he will have a larger lead in the championship by the end of the weekend.”

Who will be on the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix podium?

Kyle Archer – Antonelli, Russell, Hamilton: “The Red Bull Ring being a power-sensitive track should see Mercedes’ Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell claim what would be their third one-two finish of the season so far. But McLaren’s problems with the 2026 Pirelli tyres should open a door for Ferrari to reach the podium, most likely with Lewis Hamilton.”

David Comerford – Russell, Antonelli, Norris: “Behind a Mercedes one-two led by George Russell, I reckon Lando Norris repeats his P3 from Barcelona. He has a great record at this circuit and, crucially, the best power unit on the grid when it comes to deployment – even if McLaren have not optimised it to the same extent as their suppliers. Watch out for Max Verstappen, too, if Red Bull’s upgrades work immediately.”

Marcus Chan – Antonelli, Russell, Norris: “Following Kimi Antonelli home in Austria will be George Russell, who I sense will again be frustrated with being stuck behind his teammate. I also think Lando Norris will surprise a few people and secure back-to-back podium finishes.”

Tyler Rowlinson – Antonelli, Russell, Norris: “George Russell will have to settle for P2 this weekend in a strong Mercedes 1-2 with Kimi Antonelli. I do not think Ferrari will offer a threat this weekend, so Lando Norris will collect another P3 for McLaren and show off the dominance of the Mercedes engine.”

If Lewis Hamilton wins the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix, is he the title favourite?

Kyle Archer: “Ferrari’s biggest weakness over the first seven rounds of the season was their power deficit to Mercedes, as the SF-26 is widely thought to have the best chassis. So, if the Scuderia’s first upgraded engine allows Lewis Hamilton to win the Austrian Grand Prix at the power-hungry Red Bull Ring, then he would have to be considered the 2026 title favourite.”

David Comerford: “I do not expect Lewis Hamilton to win the Austrian GP. But if he can do so on this track – which is one of the weakest on paper for both the driver and team – then Mercedes should be panicking.”

Marcus Chan: “Although Ferrari are bringing an upgraded engine to Austria, I think they will struggle. But if Lewis Hamilton does win at the Red Bull Ring, then he will for sure be the favourite to win an eighth F1 title.”

Tyler Rowlinson: “If Lewis Hamilton does win in Austria, and that is a big if, then he would undoubtedly be a strong title contender. But to call him the title favourite, given how good the Mercedes is right now, is a bit strong to say at this stage.”