United States Grand Prix race predictions as F1 experts share who they think will dominate at COTA

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The United States Grand Prix is set to take place at the Circuit of the Americas this weekend, with focus turning to the championship battle between the McLaren drivers.

The Woking-based team won their second consecutive constructors’ title last time out in Singapore, but the team’s first back-to-back feat since the early 90s was overshadowed by a battle between their drivers.

Lando Norris made a lunge down the side of Oscar Piastri in the opening corners, placing himself ahead of his teammate.

The pair made contact after the Brit was forced to take avoiding action from crashing into Max Verstappen’s Red Bull, forcing the Aussie tight against the wall.

Piastri was quick on the radio to complain that the move was unfair, but McLaren opted to allow their drivers to continue to race, despite being locked into a tight battle for the drivers’ championship.

The Australian currently leads the title fight by 22 points ahead of his teammate, with Verstappen trailing by 63 points.

Technically, five drivers remain in contention for the 2025 title, with George Russell and Charles Leclerc also able to be crowned this year’s champion.

Read more: 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix: how to watch, race and sprint UK timings and COTA weather forecast

Who is taking the United States Sprint Race pole and will they convert it to a race pole?

Ben Evans: It would be tempting to suggest that George Russell could continue his fine form from Singapore, or that McLaren’s advantage will return after a disappointing run of results.

However, Max Verstappen has proven time and again that when the field is as bunched up as it currently is, he has the natural ability to find a couple of tenths that ultimately make all the difference.

David Comerford: I expect McLaren to return to form this weekend. Red Bull have comprehensively improved their car, but I still believe the MCL39 is the fastest package, and that should win out on a circuit that tests a variety of characteristics. I’ll back Oscar Piastri for Sprint pole, and Lando Norris in the Grand Prix.

Ashley Hambly: Verstappen’s one-lap pace this season has been one of the main reasons for why the McLaren duo of Piastri and Norris haven’t been able to build up a big enough gap to shake a last-minute title bid from him as we head into the final quarter of the season.

Kyle Archer: McLaren would have expected to score pole position for the F1 Sprint at COTA and the United States Grand Prix as recently as August. Yet the Woking crew now face being left disappointed after Max Verstappen proved in Baku that Red Bull will be a threat for pole.

“While neither McLaren driver thrived in qualifying for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, they likely would have been fighting for second place at best with tidy Q3 laps. Verstappen carried lots of speed under braking, was very committed in the corners and was rapid on the straights.

Who is winning the 2025 United States Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: When Max Verstappen starts on pole position, more often than not he wins, and I think this will be the case again.

McLaren should be more confident heading into this race based on the strength of their cars, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Piastri and Norris trip over themselves again.

David Comerford: We’ve seen numerous races this season effectively decided at the first corner. Piastri will sail up the inside of Norris from second place – more aggressively than ever after Singapore – and that will be the moment that wins him the race.

Ashley Hambly: The Australian is still in control of the championship lead, but he needs to finish ahead of Norris and Verstappen to save his current title hopes of becoming even more uncomfortable for him. Piastri previously revealed that he’s taken extra testing sessions at tracks he’s struggled at in the past, including Barcelona, Zandvoort and Austin.

With wins in Spain and the Netherlands already under his belt, he just has to tick off the Circuit of the Americas to prove that his extracurricular activities have paid off fruitfully.

Kyle Archer: With temperatures forecast to reach highs of 34C in Austin, McLaren drivers Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris will hope the MCL39’s superior tyre management is enough for them to beat Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and to win Sunday’s United States Grand Prix.

If the race proves to be a straight fight between the papaya pals, then the momentum is with Norris. The Briton has outscored the Australian in each of the last three rounds, and taking that streak to four in a row could be a huge mental advantage in the F1 title fight.

Who is going to be the biggest disappointment at the United States Grand Prix?

Ben Evans: While one side of the Red Bull garage might be celebrating on Sunday, the other could be left wondering which driver they’ll be working with next year.

Yuki Tsunoda has only scored eight points on his previous four visits to Austin, and if he doesn’t have the same updates as Verstappen this time around, breaking into the top 10 could once again prove to be a challenge.

David Comerford: George Russell and Mercedes. Russell won’t drop the ball – he hasn’t all season – but they’ll regress from their Singapore levels, even if they were at a loss to explain why they were so quick.

Ashley Hambly: Lewis Hamilton has struggled with balance issues throughout his debut season with the Scuderia. He’s been successful at the circuit in the past, but at the wheel of new machinery, the one hour of practice before the meaningful sessions get underway may prove to be too little to figure out a competitive setup for the seven-time world champion.

Kyle Archer: The 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix might now prove to be the round where Oscar Piastri sees his hopes to win the drivers’ title fall apart. The McLaren man will head to COTA desperate to bounce back from his sorrows in Singapore, but that may be his downfall.

Piastri has lost points to his two main title rivals, Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, in each of the last three rounds in Italy, Azerbaijan and Singapore. The Australian can ill-afford to let the Briton and Dutchman take more points out of his leads, which stand at 22 and 63 points.

But the biggest issue may be how Piastri felt wronged by his first lap collision with Norris in the Singapore GP, when the 24-year-old hinted McLaren should have intervened. The racing incident overshadowed McLaren winning the F1 constructors’ title, with six rounds to spare.

If the collision with Norris at Marina Bay is still on Piastri’s mind at COTA, which it likely will as the Melbourne native will no doubt face a storm of questions about it, then any hiccup in Sprint Qualifying, the F1 Sprint, Grand Prix qualifying or the United States GP could be huge.

McLaren have already seen how a minor wobble can cause the cracks to grow when Piastri crashed out of the Azerbaijan GP. He tried too hard in Baku, as he could not get jumping the start of the race out of his mind. With COTA also staging a Sprint, a repeat may prove costly.

Will Max Verstappen close in on McLaren in the championship battle?

Ben Evans: Absolutely, the difference in pace between the Red Bull and McLaren is so small now that the Dutchman should continue to narrow the gap. Whether it will be by enough if another matter.

David Comerford: I’m going to say no for reasons outlined above, but that won’t necessarily mean he’s out of the title race. The history of chaos in Brazil suggests that could be a swing weekend.

Ashley Hambly: I’m fully expecting McLaren to have used the motivation of seeing their engineers celebrate a second consecutive constructors’ championship as fuel to stoke their driver’s chances of securing a maiden title. Both Piastri and Norris are well aware that Verstappen is now circling, and they know that they need to nip it in the bid as soon as possible.

Kyle Archer: Red Bull driver Max Verstappen has outscored his McLaren rivals Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in each of the past three races. It is also entirely possible that Verstappen will at least outscore one McLaren driver in Austin following Red Bull’s continued upgrades.

While McLaren’s early dominance this year tempted them to move their focus over to the 2026 F1 regulations, Red Bull introduced a floor upgrade at Monza and a front wing update in Singapore. Now, the RB21 should be able to rival the MCL39 at a wider variety of tracks.