The maths don’t look good for Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari after F1’s Malaysia announcement

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Malaysia will host a Grand Prix later this season to take the calendar back to 23 races, it has been confirmed.

The Bahrain and Saudi Arabian GPs could not be held in April due to the conflict in the Middle East. F1 bosses hoped to reschedule the race at Sakhir, but it has not proved possible.

Instead, F1 will return to Sepang from 2-4 October (between Azerbaijan and Singapore) for a race that will officially be called the ‘Bahrain Grand Prix at Sepang International Circuit’, subject to the approval of the FIA World Motor Sport Council.

Mathematically, F1’s extended calendar suits Mercedes over Ferrari

Uncertainty persists over the final two races of the year in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, with F1 looking at Imola as a contingency plan. But as it stands, there will be 23 rounds.

Naturally, this will affect the dynamics of the world championship race. Even before considering the specifics of the circuit, this appears to be a boost to Mercedes.

What are your thoughts on Malaysia returning to the calendar under the guise of the Bahrain Grand Prix? 🤔

The race will take place from 2nd to 4th October, between Azerbaijan and Singapore

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Ahead of the Hungarian Grand Prix, Kimi Antonelli leads Lewis Hamilton by 45 points, while the gap in the constructors’ is 73.

But it wouldn’t be anywhere near that close without Mercedes’ unreliability. Antonelli retired from P2 in Barcelona after a battery failure and was also on for a victory at Silverstone before his wheel shield broke.

On the other side of the garage, Russell retired from the lead at the Canadian GP, losing 25 (or 18) points that would have put him ahead of Hamilton in the standings.

Ferrari might have been quicker than Mercedes on the high-downforce Hungaroring this weekend, but it’s clear that the Silver Arrows still have a superior package.

Mathematically speaking, an extended calendar reduces the element of randomness that Ferrari need.

It’s unlikely they can win this championship on pure performance, particularly given that Ferrari have spent most of their upgrade budget already. Mercedes, who have only introduced one major package so far, have more performance to come and now an extra race to capitalise.

Over a larger sample of races, the full extent of Mercedes’ advantage should become clear. They have another weekend to recoup some of the points they’ve lost.