Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff might wonder whether this summer represents his best chance to sign Red Bull Racing star Max Verstappen.
On paper, Max Verstappen switching from the team that are fourth in the constructors’ championship to the outfit one place and 38 points ahead of them doesn’t make a huge amount of sense.
However, there are plenty of factors for Verstappen to consider when deciding whether to join Mercedes from Red Bull for the upcoming campaign.
Red Bull deciding to part ways with team principal Christian Horner could go one of two ways in trying to convince Verstappen to stay.
| Position | Drivers' Championship | Points |
| 1 | Oscar Piastri | 234 |
| 2 | Lando Norris | 226 |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | 165 |
| 4 | George Russell | 147 |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | 119 |
| 6 | Lewis Hamilton | 103 |
| 7 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 63 |
| 8 | Alexander Albon | 46 |
| 9 | Nico Hulkenberg | 37 |
| 10 | Esteban Ocon | 23 |
Some reports have suggested that Verstappen’s camp demanded Horner’s exit so that he wouldn’t move to another team.
There’s also the theory that Horner was let go because the four-time world champion had already decided to move on.
Whispers surrounding Mercedes’ 2026 car are very positive, and that might be a clinching factor in Verstappen deciding to switch allegiances.
Ralf Schumacher believes ‘something will happen’ after the summer break, and has told Mercedes boss Toto Wolff what he now needs to do to get a deal for Verstappen over the line.
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Ralf Schumacher suggests how likely it is that Red Bull will retain Max Verstappen
Schumacher was asked by Sport1 how likely it is that Verstappen stays at Red Bull now that Horner has left and replied: “I think Max really doesn’t care at the end of the day.
“He put it nicely, he owes a lot to Christian, and I don’t think that was the issue.
“Max wants a car that wins and where he can win, and also the prospect of winning.
“That is, now, because Red Bull is showing him pretty quickly, OK, this is the engine coming next year, this is the car, everything is so much better.
| TEAM | ENGINE |
| Red Bull | Red Bull Powertrains (in partnership with Ford) |
| Ferrari | Ferrari |
| McLaren | Mercedes |
| Mercedes | Mercedes |
| Aston Martin | Honda |
| Racing Bulls | Red Bull Powertrains (in partnership with Ford) |
| Haas | Ferrari |
| Williams | Mercedes |
| Alpine | Mercedes |
| Audi | Audi |
| Cadillac | Ferrari |
“We suspect that this will go in the right direction again, then Max can decide again.
“I think one thing is nice, Max is open and honest, and Max knows what he owes to Red Bull, namely, almost everything in most of his successes, and that’s why he sticks with the family, of course, because he grew up there.
“On the other hand, I had the feeling that Silverstone did something to him, and I, personally, still believe something will happen after the summer break.
“I can’t imagine that he will stay because historically I suspect that Red Bull will need the next three to five years to rebuild everything and be at the top again.”
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Mercedes told to show Max Verstappen ‘everything’ to convince him to make 2026 switch
Schumacher was then given the chance to share where he thinks Verstappen will go next and continued: “Apparently, we are now hearing from the top level at Mercedes that they have a great interest in Verstappen.
“I think if Mercedes show him that they are doing everything for him, that he will come to them, then he will do that too, because he needs something new.
“He would like a new project, but he really wants to win. But I think he’s coming from a team that has done everything for him, and it’s not easy to let something like that go.
“As a driver, I would therefore say, you guarantee this and that, and show me that, then that’s an option for me.”
| TEAM | DRIVER 1 | DRIVER 2 |
| Alpine | Pierre Gasly | Franco Colapinto |
| Aston Martin | Fernando Alonso | Lance Stroll |
| Audi | Gabriel Bortoleto | Nico Hulkenberg |
| Cadillac | Valtteri Bottas | Sergio Perez |
| Ferrari | Charles Leclerc | Lewis Hamilton |
| Haas | Esteban Ocon | Oliver Bearman |
| McLaren | Lando Norris | Oscar Piastri |
| Mercedes | George Russell | Kimi Antonelli |
| Racing Bulls | Liam Lawson | Arvid Lindblad |
| Red Bull Racing | Max Verstappen | Isack Hadjar |
| Williams | Alex Albon | Carlos Sainz |
Verstappen has a get-out clause in his Red Bull contract that, if activated, would make any transition far easier to negotiate.
However, the details of this clause are murky to say the least, and may come down to George Russell beating Verstappen by a significant points margin at the Belgian Grand Prix.
If that happened, he may end up costing himself a place in Wolff’s team, with Mercedes more likely to retain Andrea Kimi Antonelli than Russell if Verstappen decides to leave.
The 27-year-old has a very difficult choice on his hands, but will also know that he’s in no rush to decide.
He may well be better off staying at Red Bull for one more year before deciding which team has nailed the upcoming regulation changes and moving in time for the 2027 campaign.
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