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Monaco Grand Prix predictions as F1 experts weigh up Ferrari chances of ending Mercedes’ win streak

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Formula 1 heads to the iconic streets of Monte Carlo this weekend for the Monaco Grand Prix, with our F1 experts sharing their predictions for Round 6 of the 2026 season.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli continued his remarkable start to the new regulation changes, with a fourth consecutive victory, as the Mercedes starlet continues to rewrite the record books.

Despite teammate George Russell securing pole position in Montreal, an engine failure on Lap 30 forced the Briton into retirement and handed the race lead to Antonelli, who cruised to a historic win in Canada.

The 19-year-old has now become the first driver in Formula 1 history to claim his first four Grand Prix victories consecutively, further underlining his status as one of the sport’s brightest upcoming talents.

Antonelli arrives in Monaco carrying significant momentum and a commanding 43-point lead over Russell in the drivers’ championship as Formula 1 begins its European campaign. All eyes will be on the Italian to see whether he can extend his winning streak and add another chapter to his extraordinary year.

The jewel in the crown is upon us! Who’s your pick for the Monaco Grand Prix? 👑

Lando Norris of McLaren smiles on the Monaco Grand Prix podium
Photo by Emmanuele Ciancaglini/Ciancaphoto Studio/Getty Images

Who will take pole position for the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix?

David Comerford – Charles Leclerc: While he had a poor weekend in Montreal by his standards, this is probably his best track of the season. Leclerc is always a contender here, even when he doesn’t have the best car, so he’s the man to beat for me.

Kyle Archer – Charles Leclerc: The Ferrari SF-26 has often been the best, or at least one of the best, cars in slow corners so far this term, so Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton should be able to at least contend for Ferrari’s first pole position of 2026 on the streets of Monaco. And with three Monaco GP poles to Leclerc’s name since 2021, a fourth may come in 2026.

Ashley Hambly – Lewis Hamilton: The seven-time world champion is in the form of his Ferrari career at the moment, and all signs are pointing towards the Scuderia having the best package for the streets of Monaco. Charles Leclerc will be a tough rival, but so is Hamilton when he’s got the right car underneath him.

Rebecca Braybrook – Kimi Antonelli: Ferrari may be the favourites heading into the weekend, but I’m backing Kimi Antonelli to snatch pole position. The Mercedes rookie has shown he’s willing to push right to the limit in qualifying, and if he keeps it out of the wall, I think he’ll come out on top.

Tyler Rowlinson – Charles Leclerc: Monaco is a qualifying track. It’s the chance for the very best over one lap to show how good they are… enter Charles Leclerc. On home soil, with a car that is suited to this track, this is his best chance all year to beat the Mercedes. The home hero will be on pole.

Marcus Chan – Lando Norris: All the talk has been about Ferrari and Mercedes, but I am backing the reigning world champion to secure back-to-back pole positions in Monaco.

Who will stand on the podium at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix?

David Comerford – Leclerc, Piastri, Hamilton: We know the value of pole in Monaco, so Leclerc will convert it for a second Monaco win. I think Hamilton will join him, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a McLaren pop up between the two, maybe Piastri in a repeat of 2024.

Kyle Archer – Leclerc, Antonelli, Hamilton: Should Ferrari star Charles Leclerc or teammate Lewis Hamilton score the first non-Mercedes Grand Prix pole position of 2026 in Monaco on Saturday, then the first non-Mercedes Grand Prix win can follow on Sunday. Yet Andrea Kimi Antonelli is riding a wave of confidence that could see him at least join the fight in Monaco.

Ashley Hambly – Hamilton, Norris, Leclerc: As usual, the final classification may be decided on Saturday afternoon again. Other than some unseen force majeure, I can’t see Hamilton letting the win slip out of his fingers during the race. I also expect McLaren to be quite competitive in Monaco, with Norris securing another P2 in 2026.

Rebecca Braybrook – Antonelli, Hamilton, Leclerc:
Monaco is all about qualifying, and if Antonelli delivers on Saturday, I think he’ll convert pole into a maiden victory around the streets of Monte Carlo. I don’t think it will be straightforward, though, with Hamilton keeping the pressure on throughout the race and making him work for the win.

Tyler Rowlinson – Hamilton, Leclerc, Antonelli: A Ferrari one-two feels inevitable, but I’m backing Hamilton to jump Leclerc off the start and clinch his maiden win for the team. Antonelli will have to settle for P3; his W17 is not as strong around Monaco to the Ferrari, but he will continue to have the upper hand over Russell.

Marcus Chan – Norris, Leclerc, Hamilton: I think Norris will lead from start to finish, with Leclerc and Hamilton beating the likes of Mercedes and Red Bull for the remaining podium places.

What’s ONE idea you have to fix the Monaco Grand Prix? 💡

The race has been the subject of intense debate due to a lack of overtaking

F1 Grand Prix of Monaco
Photo by Jayce Illman/Getty Images

Are Ferrari really the team to beat this weekend?

David Comerford – Yes. Everything I’ve learned about their car says to me that they should be the quickest here, but it will naturally be very close. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mercedes are knocked off the podium entirely before an emphatic return to form in Barcelona.

Kyle Archer – The Monaco Grand Prix is widely seen as Ferrari’s best chance to strike their first dent into Mercedes’ dominant start to the 2026 season because of the characteristics of the SF-26 and the streets of the Principality. Jolyon Palmer says Lewis Hamilton’s data in Canada shows Ferrari will be fast in Monaco, for example, but them dominating is unlikely.

Ashley HamblyI think the only team who can stop Ferrari this weekend are Ferrari themselves. If they can withstand the pressure of coming into the race weekend as favourites, they should be okay, but history has indicated that they aren’t the best team when it comes to dealing with it.

Rebecca Braybrook – I do think Ferrari will have made the gains many are expecting for Monaco, and that should be enough to secure a double podium finish. However, I still believe Antonelli will have the pace to stay ahead and take the win.

Tyler Rowlinson – Absolutely. The smaller turbo and their strength in low-speed corners gives them a massive advantage. Plus, with Mercedes’ compression ratio trick being nullified by the regulations as of this weekend, Ferrari could be even more at an advantage.

Marcus ChanI think they have a great chance, but I am still backing Norris to get the job done, just like he did 12 months ago.