Mercedes should be fearful of Oscar Piastri as Japanese Grand Prix data shows possible McLaren edge

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McLaren have had a rough start to the 2026 season, but Oscar Piastri’s data from the Japanese Grand Prix shows that they may have found an edge over Mercedes.

The defending champions have just 18 points from the first two races of 2026. Piastri crashed out of the Australian Grand Prix before it even started, while Lando Norris could only manage P5.

Things got even worse for the Woking outfit in China as Piastri and Norris both failed to start the race with separate electrical faults. McLaren have been desperately struggling with Mercedes’ power unit in 2026, with the factory team dominating proceedings thus far.

CEO Zak Brown guarantees race wins for McLaren this season, and their performance at the Japanese Grand Prix, so far anyway, has shown that they have taken a clear step forward.

Piastri set the pace in FP2 over Kimi Antonelli and George Russell by a tenth of a second. It does not sound like much, but analysing the data, McLaren may have found an advantage.

Oscar Piastri’s Japanese GP data shows McLaren gained half a second on Mercedes heading into sector one

Journalist Jon Noble detailed how McLaren are deploying the battery differently from Mercedes in Japan, via The Race YouTube channel. While the lap times were ‘almost identical’ in FP2, the former were half a second up heading down the main straight and into sector one.

Now, of course, there are some factors to consider, in that Mercedes could have been sandbagging, or that they learned how to use battery deployment better as the weekend went on.

This theory is proven by Mercedes locking out the front row in qualifying, with Piastri in P3. However, with McLaren finding this speed at certain parts of the track, the Aussie must be considered a threat.

Noble detailed: “Actually, the data, as you can see here, they’re doing something very different around Suzuka. The lap times end up almost identical but how they’re achieving it is completely different.

“They’re using deployment in two different areas of the track. McLaren is deploying coming out [of] the chicane. So down the straight, Piastri hits a peak of 328 km an hour.

Kimi Antonelli beat George Russell to pole position in Japan by 0.298s – But who was your star of qualifying?

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“The Mercs are much more conservative. I mean, George Russell lap, for example, he only hit 305, so big speed difference. It puts McLaren half a second up coming into the S’s section.

“Then things narrow down a bit and by the time they get to the hairpin, 0.2 seconds of difference. Then they run around and then we come out of the Spoon curve where Mercedes deploys and there’s a big speed difference there.

“Piastri is at 320 and Antonelli was up at 330 km an hour. They hit their peak before dropping down for speed difference about 10 kilometers an hour.

“It means Mercedes are actually ahead when they come into the chicane. But then as they come out to deploy again, McLaren puts it on the power and gets that finally fine bit of difference.”