Max Verstappen has already pulled off a genius move in F1 transfer talks with Mercedes

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Max Verstappen has opened talks with Mercedes over a potential move as his departure from Red Bull looks more likely than ever.

Red Bull’s dominance in F1 has been crushed in recent months as they have dramatically regressed in performance. Verstappen has continued to display top-quality results, but he now lacks the pace of the McLarens, with his DNF at the Austrian Grand Prix putting him 61 points behind Oscar Piastri.

Reports came out from the Red Bull Ring that Mercedes were in talks with Verstappen, with Toto Wolff and George Russell confirming the rumours. The Silver Arrows have been eyeing the four-time champion’s signature for some time.

Verstappen has a contract at Red Bull until 2028, but he can now activate an exit clause in his deal. Mercedes and Aston Martin have expressed an interest in signing the Dutchman, but the former appears to be the favourite.

Verstappen has reportedly ‘said yes’ to Mercedes and a proposal made by Wolff. The move needs approval from the team’s board, but it is not expected to go through for 2026.

Max Verstappen is not expected to leave Red Bull until 2027 – he is already looking far ahead for the new regulations

In a report from The Race, a transfer for Verstappen from Red Bull is ‘unlikely to happen until 2027 at the earliest’. Any discussions happening between the 27-year-old and Mercedes are ‘more about that’, with Valtteri Bottas giving away that Russell and Kimi Antonelli will stay for 2026.

Amid all the speculation surrounding his future, Verstappen is at a crossroads with his future. The 2026 F1 regulations are set to overhaul the sport and the pecking order, making any move in the F1 driver market extremely risky.

Verstappen doubts Mercedes have the fastest engine for 2026 despite rumours about the Brackley outfit acing the regulations. The Dutchman sees the peak performance of the power units as relatively equal, with Red Bull bringing their own engine in collaboration with Ford next season.

While Mercedes are tipped to have the fastest engine in 2026, that is pure speculation at this point. No one will truly know that until the cars take to the track, making Verstappen’s decision to hold on until 2027 a genius move.

The 2026 season is the perfect opportunity for the Red Bull driver to assess his team’s situation under the new regulations. If they cannot provide him with a competitive car and Mercedes is the engine to have, then he has his move already lined up.

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Red Bull must reinstall trust with Max Verstappen if they want to keep him beyond 2026

While Red Bull look set to keep their star driver for at least another season, there is serious doubt about whether they can hold onto him beyond that. Verstappen has been getting increasingly frustrated with the team’s upgrades in 2025.

Verstappen has lost confidence in technical director Pierre Wache due to the RB21’s regression. His uninspiring tenure as Adrian Newey’s replacement has led to doubts surrounding Red Bull’s 2026 engine.

The Dutchman is not looking to make a rash decision just yet, but the people around him have warned Red Bull that he is considering his future. Verstappen’s camp thinks he could have a ‘painful’ 2026 season as they do not think he can make the ‘big step’ with the Milton Keynes outfit.

Red Bull simply must regain that trust with Verstappen and provide him with a competitive power unit in 2026. If they cannot, that deal with Mercedes for 2027 may already have been signed.