Liam Lawson might miss out on 2026 F1 seat as Yuki Tsunoda backer looks to ‘tip the balance’

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There appears to be only one seat that hasn’t been settled for the 2026 Formula 1 season, and Liam Lawson and Yuki Tsunoda are fighting to fill it.

Yuki Tsunoda ended a run of three race weekends without scoring a point by finishing fifth in the Sprint Race at the Qatar Grand Prix.

The Red Bull driver did pick up a five-second penalty for track limits, but benefited from Andrea Kimi Antonelli falling foul of the same misdemeanour on the final lap of the race.

Tsunoda was then eliminated in Q1, alongside Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton, and will have plenty of work to do to add to his points tally in Sunday’s race.

He will start three positions behind Liam Lawson, who is still fighting for his Racing Bulls seat.

Ted Kravitz delivered a positive update on Lawson’s future, but there’s now a belief that Honda might step in to make one last effort to keep Tsunoda on the grid next season.

READ MORE: Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda’s life outside F1 from height to parents

Honda hoping to ‘tip the balance’ and keep Yuki Tsunoda in F1 over Liam Lawson

A report from journalist Adam Cooper’s Substack has shared more details about the final piece of the driver market puzzle that’s yet to be resolved.

He believes that Isack Hadjar will join Red Bull in 2026, and Arvid Lindblad is ‘being lined up’ to replace the Frenchman.

It’s now believed Honda are using their power unit supply ‘as leverage’ ahead of 2026 in the hope that it will ‘tip the balance’ in Tsunoda’s direction for next season.

Although Red Bull are switching to building their own power units next season alongside Ford, they will still need a positive relationship when it comes to their TPC program.

Lindblad is expected to do plenty of private TPC running to get up to speed before his maiden F1 campaign.

Without Honda, Red Bull would need to rent another team’s car to continue Lindblad’s preparations, something that could cost the team a fortune.

This means that if it were as close as expected between Tsunoda and Lawson when deciding who to retain, the Japanese driver might just have an edge over his rival.

The pair both signed contract extensions at the end of September that run until the end of the season, while a decision remains up in the air.

It’s also not been ruled out that Tsunoda could continue with Red Bull in a reserve driver capacity in 2026 if he’s not chosen, but it’s not clear what impact that would have on any deal with Honda.

READ MORE: Who is Racing Bulls F1 driver Liam Lawson? Everything you need to know

Yuki Tsunoda reflects on scoring points during the Qatar Grand Prix Sprint Race

The report goes on to say that the ‘consensus in the paddock’ is that Lawson ‘will get the nod’ to remain in Formula 1 in 2026.

But Red Bull continue to insist that no decision has been made, prompting Honda to get involved after previously funding Tsunoda’s promotion.

Talks continued between the two parties in Qatar, and a tricky weekend for Lawson won’t have helped matters, even if he did outqualify Tsunoda ahead of Sunday’s race.

Speaking in his official post-qualifying media session, Tsunoda said: “Today was a mixed day, the Sprint was good for me, and then Qualifying didn’t follow the same pattern.

“I got a good start in the Sprint. I could have maybe taken more risks, but I wanted to keep the car safe. Max also got a good start, and as a team, we were able to make it work, and I could help Max out.

“I nearly lost out with the time penalty, but I felt like I had a strong Sprint, with good pace. I don’t understand what happened in Qualifying. We didn’t change much in the car, but I just didn’t have much grip and felt like I had lost the pace.

“My lap felt pretty tidy, probably tidier than yesterday, so I can’t fully explain what was different from Sprint Qualifying. It is very frustrating.”