Lewis Hamilton has disproved Mercedes’ ‘internal forecasts’ about the F1 title race

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Lewis Hamilton is 45 points behind Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli in the world championship after the Belgian Grand Prix.

Hamilton lost 13 points to Spa winner Antonelli by finishing fourth, but he did regain second place from George Russell. Ironically, Russell retired from the race after tangling with the Ferrari on the opening lap.

Antonelli remains the strong favourite given that Mercedes clearly have the best car – they have won eight out of 10 races – but Hamilton is close enough to keep them under meaningful pressure.

Lewis Hamilton was supposed to be out of the F1 title battle by now

According to Corriere della Sera, Mercedes expected to have seen off any external competition by now.

After pre-season testing, the team’s ‘internal forecasts’ suggested they would have effectively wrapped up both championships by Spa, and it would just be a question of whether Antonelli or Russell won the drivers’ title.

Kimi Antonelli wins the Belgian Grand Prix! What was your main takeaway from the race? 🏁

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Mercedes never thought it would be mathematically done and dusted by this point, of course, but they hoped that rivals would be giving up by now and switching focus to 2027.

In qualifying for the season opener at Albert Park, polesitter Russell was almost eight-tenths clear of the first non-Mercedes car. That underlined their margin of superiority.

But since then, Mercedes have been outdeveloped, particularly by Ferrari, and Hamilton is much closer than anticipated.

The caveat is that the Scuderia have used the majority of their development resources already on multiple major upgrades, whereas the championship leaders are playing the long game.

The message at Maranello before the Belgian GP was ‘we continue to believe in the fight’, and the team will be buoyed by their performance in the Ardennes even if Antonelli passed Charles Leclerc to win the race.

A third-row lockout in qualifying was a little disappointing, but both drivers were compromised in different ways. The race was a truer reflection of their pace, and they left with a positive 30-point haul.

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They have now outscored Mercedes, who continue to nurse reliability problems, in four of the last six races. This has seen them close the gap in the constructors’ to 73 points.

Despite their well-established horsepower deficit, Hamilton thinks Ferrari had the pace to win at Spa had his race been cleaner.

And looking to Hungary, Antonelli has already said that Ferrari will be a ‘fearsome’ proposition on a track that rewards cornering performance above all.